Upbeat forecast from Lilly on weight loss drugs adds to Novo Nordisk gloom as it foresees steep drop in sales

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Shares in weight loss drug giants Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly moved in sharply different directions on Wednesday after the companies delivered contrasting outlooks.

Eli Lilly provided an upbeat sales forecast for the year as strong demand for its weight loss drug cemented its position at the top of the obesity market. Lilly’s shares rose by close to 10 per cent in lunchtime trading in New York.

Novo Nordisk shares meanwhile fell by a further 5 per cent, bringing losses since the pioneer of weight-loss drugs warned of a double-digit fall in sales on Tuesday amid a “painful” reduction in prices close to 20 per cent.

“It really paints a picture of a challenged Novo,” Lars Hytting, head of trading at ArthaScope, an investor in the Danish drugmaker, said in an interview. “Even the most sceptical analyst” didn’t anticipate this big of a drop, he said.

Weight-loss drugs are in high demand and Lilly and Novo are fending off competition from telehealth companies selling cheaper copycat versions. President Donald Trump has also made cutting drug costs a key priority and both drugmakers have struck deals to offer lower prices as a result.

Novo’s declining sales guidance for 2026 mainly reflected falling US prices associated with its deal with the Trump administration under the Most Favored Nation agreement, said chief executive Mike Doustdar.

Lilly is in a comparatively stronger position than Novo because its blockbusters Mounjaro, for diabetes, and Zepbound, for obesity, have another decade of patent life. Lilly has also been more proactive in fighting off copycat competition. Meanwhile, Novo’s drugs will face generic competition as soon as this year in some countries.

“This is just more evidence they are dominating the category,” Mizuho’s Jared Holz said of Lilly’s obesity market position. “Novo is playing from behind and everyone knows it.”

Novo delivered its profit warning as it announced net sales of 309 billion Danisk krone (€41.4 billion) in 2025, a 10 per cent increase against the previous year at constant exchange rates, buoyed by growth in the US and its international operations.

On Wednesday morning, Eli Lilly said sales of its two top obesity drugs more than doubled in the last three months of 2025. Indianapolis-based Lilly said worldwide sales of its two weight-loss shots increased by 110 per cent and 122 per cent in the fourth quarter.

Overall, Lilly saw sales reach $19.3 billion in the quarter, beating the average analyst estimates of $18 billion. Lilly’s earnings of $7.54 per share beat expectations for $6.73 per share.

Lilly’s Zepbound has proven more effective than Novo’s Wegovy, also helping the Indiana-based drugmaker to gain an edge. In a head-to-head study last year, Zepbound helped patients trim about two inches more off their waists than Wegovy. – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2026 / Bloomberg