Moldova’s pro-European movement faces the ultimate acid test this Sunday. 

President Maia Sandu’s pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity is defending its parliamentary majority in a critical election that will decide whether the country remains on course to join the EU — or drifts back into Vladimir Putin’s orbit amid accusations of colossal Russian interference.

If PAS fails to hold on, as current polls suggest, it could struggle to form a governing coalition, opening the door for Euroskeptic and pro-Russian forces to take control in Chișinău.

To sway the result, the Kremlin will stop at nothing — even spending hundreds of millions of euros to buy crucial votes, Sandu warned this week.

This is a crucial moment for Moldova, more so than at any point in the last 35 years since gaining independence from the Soviet Union, Nicu Popescu, a former foreign minister now running on the PAS list, told POLITICO. 

“What is at stake is not just European integration of Moldova. It’s, to a large degree, the freedom of Moldova and its independence,” he said.

Isolated PAS

Since Sandu and her party rode a wave of optimism to secure decisive victories in 2020 and 2021, support has eroded, largely due to the adverse economic impact from Russia’s war in Ukraine, then fueled by Moscow’s relentless disinformation campaigns.

“Of course, there’s always a gap between expectations and delivery. Moldova has the same frustrations as elsewhere — inflation, purchasing power, energy costs,” Popescu said. 

PAS has also failed to deliver on its anti-corruption and justice-reform promises, and struggled to connect with voters, said Valeriu Pașa, head of the Moldova-based WatchDog.MD think tank. “PAS’s biggest enemy right now is PAS,” he said, “because they’re making all possible mistakes.”

As PAS is the country’s only major pro-European force, its struggles also put Moldova’s EU future at risk. Last fall, Sandu barely squeaked out a referendum win on EU membership — then narrowly won reelection as president.

This year, the pro-Russian Patriotic Bloc, led by ex-President Igor Dodon, is closing in on PAS and aims to form the next government, giving it veto power over the reforms required for EU integration.

Moldova’s large bloc of undecided voters and Russian vote-buying could tip the scales on Sunday. If PAS does not get the majority, which looks increasingly likely, experts predict it will be left without reliable coalition partners — and Champagne corks will be popping in the Kremlin.

Two smaller parties hovering around the parliamentary threshold in opinion polls are this election’s dark horses.

The Alternative bloc positions itself as a different option to Sandu for pro-European and geopolitically neutral voters. But with leaders tied to pro-Russian parties, it is a “classical kleptocratic party” that will ultimately side with the Patriotic Bloc, Pașa predicts.

Renato Usatîi’s Our Party could become the real kingmaker in the new parliament. 

Usatîi, a businessman who made his fortune in Russia and once helped Sandu win in 2020, is used to playing both sides in Moldovan politics. His party is the only one that could prop up PAS — but he might just as easily partner with pro-Russian forces. 

“You actually never know what the hell he’ll do,” Pașa said. 

Geopolitical face-off 

In late August, European heavyweights decamped to Chișinău to urge voters to back their country’s pro-EU government. Moscow, Sandu said Monday, has mobilized huge sums of money — not just to persuade but to buy voters outright.

“What makes Moldova different from other countries targeted by Russia is how open the interference is — they no longer bother to hide it,” Victoria Olari, a Moldova researcher at the Atlantic Council, told POLITICO.

There are the usual disinformation campaigns, spread through fake news websites, troll networks and artificial intelligence-generated deepfakes. Sandu has been a prime target, accused of everything from trafficking Ukrainian refugee children to buying sperm from Brad Pitt.

Moscow has also relied on Orthodox churches and staged anti-government protests to sway voters, according to Olari.

But Russia is going further still, pouring cash into large-scale vote buying. Authorities estimated that during last year’s elections, more than 130,000 Moldovan citizens received money from the Russians. In a country with a regular turnout of around 1.5 million voters, this is enough to clearly swing the vote.  

There are enormous potential repercussions for the country and the whole of Europe should Moscow’s strategy prove successful. 

“Whoever controls parliament controls the government — and Moscow sees that as a gateway to destabilizing not only Moldova, but also Ukraine and the EU members,” Moldova’s National Security Adviser Stanislav Secrieru told POLITICO.

Moldova has made enormous progress on EU accession since 2022, but a pro-Russian government could derail the process, as happened in Georgia. Alongside its own bid, Moldova could also drag down Ukraine’s prospects, since the two countries are informally linked in their EU aspirations.

Despite its small size, Moldova is also an important logistics hub between the EU and Kyiv. A hostile government in Chișinău risks complicating Ukraine’s war effort — and Sandu has even warned the country might become a staging ground for infiltration into Ukraine’s south.

Gabriel Gavin contributed to this report.