TOMORROW IS A big day in the presidential election race, with the first debate set to take place — but will it be a game-changer for the campaign?
Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys, Fianna Fáil’s Jim Gavin and Independent Catherine Connolly will go head-to-head at 10 pm for the live debate on Virgin Media One’s Tonight Show.
Show host Kieran Cuddihy will be in the hot seat to quiz the three candidates as they each try to set out their stall to voters ahead of the election on October 24.
The Journal understands the show will take its usual format, with the three candidates sitting side by side in pre-agreed seats.
While the arrangement might seem more relaxed than a traditional podium set-up, we can be sure Cuddihy, who is no stranger to grilling politicians, will put each of the candidates through their paces.
What can we expect?
Given the fact that there are only three on this year’s ballot, the debates are going to be quite different to what we have seen in recent years.
In 2018, six candidates battled it out for attention, while in 2011, there were seven.
The Tonight Show’s 2018 Presidential Debate. Brian McEvoy / Rollingnews.ie
Brian McEvoy / Rollingnews.ie / Rollingnews.ie
You have to go as far back as 1990 for the last time there were so few candidates on the ballot (This was the year Mary Robinson won, having gone up against Brian Lenihan and Austin Currie).
Looking back to the Tonight Show’s 2018 presidential debate, five of the six candidates participated, with finances and “bland” campaigns dominating the discussion.
Fewer candidates means less space to hide and (hopefully) more time to hear considered responses from each of the three candidates on the issues of the day and on bigger-picture topics that relate to the presidency.
Things to watch out for
Aside from the obvious appraisal of each candidate’s performance, there will be two big things that keen political observers will be watching out for in this debate.
Firstly, will political novice Jim Gavin be able to hold his own against his two more experienced rivals?
We have a very good sense already of Catherine Connolly and Heather Humphreys’ oratory and debating abilities; years of Dáil contributions have shown that both women are well able to hold their own.
But so far, the biggest criticism of Gavin in this campaign has been that he has been afraid to go off script in interactions with the media, and as a result, the electorate doesn’t yet feel like they know who he is or what a Jim Gavin presidency would actually look like.
During the toing and froing of a debate, we should get a true sense of how he operates and where he stands on the issues of the day.
If he is not able for it, there will be nowhere to hide.
The second thing that we will be watching out for is if the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael candidates choose to gang up on the lefty (Connolly in this instance) or if they opt to try and tear strips off each other instead.
Cast your mind back to the three-way leaders’ debate on RTÉ during last year’s general election, and you will remember that at points it felt as though it was Team Micheál and Simon versus Mary Lou.
Things are obviously more fluid and unpredictable in a presidential election, but the general assumption is that potential Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael voters will have more in common with each other than with potential Connolly voters.
As of yet, none of the candidates have suggested which of their rivals they would like to see their voters give their number two preference to, so how things unfold in the debate will give us a good idea of whether that will be a request that materialises or not.
Will there be fireworks?
In previous years, debates have changed the entire course of the race.
In 2011, Sean Gallagher was within touching distance of winning.
Four days out from election day, the Dragons’ Den star was at 40 per cent in the polls, yards above his closest rival, Michael D Higgins, who was sitting in the mid to high 20s.
But on RTÉ’s Frontline presidential debate, everything changed.
A tweet was read out live on the programme, alleging that Gallagher had not been honest about his close ties with Fianna Fáil. It subsequently emerged that the tweet came from a false account, but by that stage, the damage was done and Gallagher’s campaign had already gone into freefall.
Sean Gallagher on his way into Frontline, 2011. Sasko Lazarov / Photocall Ireland
Sasko Lazarov / Photocall Ireland / Photocall Ireland
Higgins won the election with 40 per cent of the vote, while Gallagher came second with 28 per cent.
While the public will be hoping for some fireworks tomorrow night, Humphreys, Gavin and Connolly will all just be hoping to get in and out unscathed.
Even one small slip-up during the debate could change everything for the race.
