Net migration falls to pre-Brexit levels—but rising public concern suggests it’s still not enough

DCM Editorial Summary: This story has been independently rewritten and summarised for DCM readers to highlight key developments relevant to the region. Original reporting by The Conversation, click this post to read the original article.

Net migration to the UK has significantly dropped, returning to levels not seen since before Brexit. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), net migration stood just above 200,000 in the year ending June, marking a sharp 78% fall from a peak of over 900,000 two years ago. The current Labour government sees this decline as positive, as it has prioritized reducing net migration. Recent policy changes aim to deter migration, such as making refugee status temporary and delaying eligibility for permanent residency to up to 30 years—one of the strictest rules in Europe.

However, even with falling numbers, public concern about immigration may not ease. You might find it surprising, but declining net migration doesn’t necessarily mean it will continue at this level. The current figures are influenced by EU citizens leaving in larger numbers than arriving, a trend that may not last. Additionally, fewer arrivals from outside the EU now could lead to lower emigration in the future, possibly boosting net migration again. The ONS also warned that the data on family migrants might be underreported, which could later revise the figures upward.

Public perception is another factor. Even if persons like you become aware of the reduced numbers, the figure of 200,000 might still seem high. Moreover, some of the most visible and contentious forms of immigration—like asylum seekers and small boat arrivals—have not dropped. In fact, asylum applications reached a record 110,000, largely due to a rise in small boat crossings and visa overstayers from countries like Pakistan. This has also increased the number of people living in state-funded asylum hotels, adding to public pressure on the government.

The focus on reducing migration carries real economic trade-offs. As more arrivals are asylum seekers rather than workers or students, migration contributes less economically. Asylum seekers need more support and are less likely to work. Plus, keeping refugees in temporary status for decades may discourage them from integrating into society, which could affect long-term social cohesion. For you and others concerned about this issue, it’s important to understand that migration policies involve balancing often conflicting goals—like reducing numbers, supporting the economy, and following legal obligations.

Ultimately, don’t expect migration to fall off the political radar anytime soon. Public concern, policy trade-offs, and challenges in managing asylum are likely to keep immigration a major topic in UK politics. The effectiveness of recent reforms remains to be seen, and the complexity of the issue means it will likely remain at the forefront for years to come.