The Socialists also claim, rather improbably, that almost all the deficit savings can be achieved via their new proposed wealth tax. And though Lecornu’s government is ready to accept a less draconian wealth tax, which would be levied only on noncommercial assets, the center-right part of the minority coalition warns that any large tax hikes might breach their redlines.

Most worryingly for Lecornu, though, Socialist leaders have again decided to raise the thorny issue of pension reform. And they say there can be no deal unless the new prime minister suspends the progressive increase of France’s official retirement age from 62 to 64, which was imposed by special government powers in 2023.

Such a demand would be a deal-breaker. Pension reform is one of the few accomplishments of Macron’s second term. It’s also one of the few deficit-reducing measures passed in recent years — reversing or suspending it would undermine any remaining market confidence in France’s ability to confront its debt problem.

And though the government may offer some kind of revision of the overhaul, improving the terms for women and manual laborers, that may not be enough to secure a non-aggression or non-censure pact with all 66 Socialist deputies — which Lecornu needs to survive.

Ultimately, Lecornu is gambling on the Socialists’ fear of an early parliamentary election — something that would become very likely if another prime minister were to fall. But some Socialists, however, say their real fear is making a deal with an unpopular government, which would wreck the party’s chances of holding onto big cities, including Paris, in next year’s municipal elections.

Now, Lecornu must find a narrow path between these maximalist Socialist demands for taxing the wealthy and the anti-tax redlines drawn by his center-right coalition partners. If he fails to navigate a route through this minefield, he’ll be leading France into truly uncharted territory.