Is Ukraine’s future hanging by a thread—or is a groundbreaking deal within reach for you to watch unfold?

DCM Editorial Summary: This story has been independently rewritten and summarised for DCM readers to highlight key developments relevant to the region. Original reporting by The Conversation, click this post to read the original article.

If you’ve been following the war in Ukraine, you might have found the Trump administration’s stance hard to read. While President Biden clearly supported Ukraine, providing massive aid and placing diplomatic pressure on Russia, Trump’s position has shifted frequently. At times, he appeared to favor the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, while at other moments, he showed support for Ukraine. Despite this inconsistency, Trump reportedly made efforts to reach a peace deal through numerous calls and meetings with Putin, including a summit in Alaska.

Recently, a controversial peace plan emerged, developed in Miami by Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian financier Kirill Dmitriev. This plan proposed recognizing Russian control over territories seized since 2014, including Crimea, and demanded that Ukraine give up more of its land and limit its military. Critics argue this plan heavily favors Russia and fails to meet legal or ethical standards for peace. Experts, like Selbi Durdiyeva, warn that peace deals ignoring one side’s interests typically don’t last.

In response to criticism, a revised version of the peace proposal was introduced. It postponed major territorial decisions and Ukraine’s NATO membership status, shifting those talks to direct discussions between Trump and Zelensky. The updated plan focused more on guaranteeing Ukraine’s future security—though, as history shows, such guarantees can be weak. Ukraine’s experience with the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which failed to protect its sovereignty, serves as a cautionary example.

While political negotiations continue, the situation on the ground remains dire. Fighting in eastern Ukraine drags on with little progress, and the Russian military’s use of drones is causing high casualties among soldiers and civilians alike. Drones are reportedly responsible for up to 70% of battlefield deaths. However, technological advancements are underway. The UK military is developing laser and electromagnetic weapons designed to neutralize drones, offering hope for changing the course of warfare.

Elsewhere, you should be aware of another tragedy in Sudan, where a brutal civil war has displaced countless people. An investigation near the South Sudan border revealed harrowing accounts of sexual violence, especially against adolescent girls, highlighting the ongoing humanitarian crisis. The situation reminds you of the deep human cost of these conflicts and the urgent need for lasting solutions.