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Is Britain’s ailing Conservative Party finally over?

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It’s difficult to remember a time when both the Tories and Labour were simultaneously imploding. Normally one party’s difficulties are a godsend for the other.

But UK politics is fracturing and the established order with it.

“The Conservative Party is over, over as a national party, over as the principal opposition to the left,” MP Danny Kruger said earlier this month after defecting to Nigel Farage’s right-wing populist Reform UK.

The East Wiltshire politician, a lifelong Tory activist, campaigner and formerly David Cameron’s chief speech writer, was the first sitting MP in the current parliament to defect to the Reform party.

Kruger’s party shot, delivered with a gleeful Farage looking on, was self-serving and vitriolic – politics is a blood sport – but for many it was accurate read on the current Tory malaise.

After a decade of infighting, several disastrous spells in government and a revolving door leadership (they’ve had six leaders in 10 years), the party looks worn out.

A recent YouGov poll put the party that has dominated British politics for the last 100 years in fourth place behind Reform, Labour and the Liberal Democrats with just 16 per cent of the popular vote, its lowest vote share with YouGov.

History buffs and psephologists have begun to speculate on whether the Tories might now be on the same trajectory as the Liberal Party was in the 1920s.

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The party of Lloyd George and Henry Asquith was riven by factional infighting and defections (several related to the Irish question) and went on to be evicted from its half of the political spectrum by a resurgent Labour Party whose vote had been amplified by the Representation of the People Act of 1918 which enfranchised the working class.

The UK’s first-past-the-post voting system has for more than a century blocked the emergence of new political forces while giving the Labour/Tory duopoly an ironclad grip on power, but a populist backlash over immigration appears to have brought the country to a tipping point.

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Out of the 1,641 seats available in the country’s recent local elections, Reform UK came away with 677, just over 41 per cent.

The average share of the vote for both Labour and the Tories across the 1,282 wards fell to a record combined low of 36.8 per cent. Before that it had never been lower than 50 per cent combined.

The Christian Democrat/Socialist binary that held sway in Europe for much of the 20th century has been smashed to pieces by two decades of mass migration and accelerating inequality, the defining socio-economic trends of the era.

The ruling parties in Italy and France were only formed in 2012 and 2016 respectively, making them parvenus in political terms, but also reflective of the current fluidity.

Tribalism has engulfed European conservatism and Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party appears to be next on the chopping block.

Brexit has played a major role, fracturing the party’s core demographic.

“In prioritising the more working-class voters in the north and midlands, the Tories, in essence, sacked the other half of its electoral coalition,” Financial Times political commentator Robert Shrimsley wrote recently.

“They scorned the major cities, graduates and much of the well-heeled south. But that Leave-voting demographic is more drawn to Faragist politics.”

Badenoch has failed to match Farage on immigration and fails to distinguish her party’s position on immigration from that of Reform’s.

Reform leader Nigel Farage is winning over the voters the Tories tried to woo
Reform leader Nigel Farage is winning over the voters the Tories tried to woo

That her party failed to keep a lid on illegal immigration when in power for the last 10 years doesn’t help.

In a bid to halt this trend, she has pivoted to focusing more on the UK’s ailing economy where Labour is seen as weak and where Reform is seen to lack credibility.

Former party bigwig James Cleverly’s return to the shadow cabinet reflects this gear change.

Badenoch attributed her party’s wipeout performance in the general election to its having “talked right, but governed left”, the sort of maxim that appeals to the party’s traditional base.

But her vision of a low-tax, less-regulated Britain is the sort of jaded Thatcherism that every Tory leader articulates.

It cuts no ice with voters inflamed by mass immigration and illegal Channel crossings as the opinion polls consistently indicate.

Badenoch‘s main party rival, Robert Jenrick, seems intent on pushing the party further right to chase Reform, a shift that will further alienate its young, professional class base. He also seems to be openly plotting against her.

The truth is out there: how many disgruntled ex-Tories can Nigel Farage’s Reform UK swallow?Opens in new window ]

Like the Liberal Party of the 1920s, both wings of the Conservative Party now seem on mutually exclusive tracks. They would probably have split by now but for the UK’s idiosyncratic electoral system.

What started as a Eurosceptic schism during the John Major era in the 1990s has grown into a compound fracture on immigration.

Former prime minister David Cameron’s attempt to seal fissure through 2016’s Brexit referendum only succeeded in blowing it wide open.

Boris Johnson and Liz Truss maxed out this dynamic and left office in a hail of recrimination from which the party has not recovered and may not recover.

Badenoch looks paralysed by her predicament.

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Budget ‘judgement call’ to make whether to boost childcare places or slash fees, says Harris

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GOVERNMENT WILL HAS to make a “judgement call” in this year’s Budget about whether to invest resources into boosting the number of childcare places or whether to slash fees further, according to Tánaiste Simon Harris. 

The Programme for Government commits this government to progressively reduce the cost of childcare to €200 per month per child.

However, asked whether parents will see further fee reductions in this year’s Budget, Tánaiste Simon Harris said:

“I think that the judgment call for us in this budget is going to be, how much do you invest in the capacity piece versus is there also room to do stuff on the fees?”

Speaking to The Journal in Washington DC, he said the government will get the cost down to €200 per month, but over the lifetime of the government, rather than in the short-term.

“In my own hometown, people say to me, that’s good that you reduced childcare [costs], and we have quite a few times… but it’s not much use to reduce the price if you can’t get a place,” he said. 

Choice between increasing place numbers or reducing fees 

Speaking to reporters in Canada, Taoiseach Micheál Martin also indicated that ensuring there are more childcare places must be a priority. 

“Places is a growing issue… we’re acutely aware of the pressure on places and the need for more places,” he said. When asked if the priority will be more rolling out more places over cutting fees for parents, Martin replied: “It depends. I mean, the discussion is on.”

The Tánaiste said the government needs to show parents there is a way forward when it comes to childcare costs.

“I am meeting far too many people around the country, disproportionately women, not exclusively, but disproportionately women, who are now having to make decisions, or find themselves making decisions, about their labour force participation, their career, their work, based on an inability to access child care. It’s not good enough,” said Harris.

The Journal has reported extensively on the strain experienced by families around the country as they try to access the limited childcare places available — and afford the high fees.

The Tánaiste said there are 21 commitments in the programme for government on childcare, stating that how these will be tackled will be set out in a new action plan on childcare.  

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In June this year, Children’s Minister Norma Foley announced that some families that are facing the highest childcare costs in the country will see their weekly fees reduced from this month.

The reduction will impact families in around 10% of early learning and childcare providers that are in receipt of core funding from the State.

The Taoiseach has said that tackling child poverty is a key focus in this year’s Budget, and while the two-tier child benefit scheme might not be ready in time for October’s Budget a boost to the child-support payment will attempt to be equal substitute. 

He told his party think-in in Cork last week that the additional support will channelled through an increase in the child support payment, which is understood to be increasing by €4 weekly for under-12s and €8 for over-12s. 

Social welfare payments won’t to rise as much as last year

As for social welfare increases, as reported by The Journal earlier this month, the pension and other social welfare payments are not expected to rise at the same rate as last year. 

With warnings of tighter purse strings and minimal tax cuts in this year’s budget, government sources have indicated that a weekly social welfare hike of €10 is more realistic for Budget 2026 than what people received last time round.

In last year’s budget, all weekly social welfare payments (including jobseekers benefit and allowance, illness benefit, disability allowance, and others) increased by €12.

Separately, on the issue of the Rent Tax Credit, the Tánaiste said the government has increased it on a number of occasions.

“We’ve done that because we believe it, it provides some degree of support to people at a time of very high rents,” stating that he is certainly committed to its continuance. 

“Whether we’re in a position to increase it does remain to be seen,” he said. 

The rent tax credit of €1,000 per person – or €2,000 for a couple – is likely to rise again, especially due to the changes to rent regulations announced earlier this year. 

In an interview with The Journal, prior to the election, Martin pledged to boost the Renters’ Tax Credit to €2,000 per person.  

Fine Gael, in its election manifesto promised to increase Rent Tax Credit to €1,500 per renter or €3,000 per couple, to support tenants in managing expenses.

In the programme for government, there is a commitment to progressively increase the Rent Tax Credit. 

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Former lord mayor’s rental house not maintained in proper state of structural repair – council

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Former lord mayor of Dublin Nial Ring was told he could no longer let a rental property he owns because of a failure to maintain the house in a proper state of structural repair.

Dublin City Council, in deciding to issue the notice, listed 10 contraventions of the regulations set out in the Housing (Standards for Rented Houses) Regulations 2019, according to a statement.

The house, 7 Caledon Court, East Wall, appears on the current list of 156 properties against which the council has issued prohibition notices as part of its role in monitoring standards in the privately rented residential property sector.

Prohibition notices are only issued after a landlord has been issued with an improvement notice but has failed to implement the improvements sought.

Improvement notices are issued after the council has inspected a property, having received a complaint or having inspected the property for some other reason.

In his declaration of interests last year, Mr Ring, an Independent north inner city councillor, said the East Wall house was being rented to a tenant availing of the Housing Assistance Payment (HAP).

The contraventions of the regulations noted by the council involved failing to keep the house in a proper state of structural repair, the failure to put safety restrictors on windows through which a person could fall to the ground, the condition of the sanitary facilities, the installation and maintenance of the heating system, the absence of a carbon monoxide alarm, the condition of the kitchen facilities, the absence of a fire alarm and fire blanket and the condition of energy supply installations.

Former lord mayor Nial Ring told by council he cannot let Dublin rental propertyOpens in new window ]

The Caledon Court house is one of several modest homes in a small, gated development on the East Road in Dublin 3, most of which appear on the register of rental properties maintained by the Residential Tenancies Board (RTB). Number 7 is not on the register.

In a text message, Mr Ring said the property was no longer being rented through the HAP scheme so “has nothing to do with DCC or RTB since last March”.

In his declaration of interests, Mr Ring said he owned the Dublin 3 property and a 50 per cent share in 70 Ballybough Road, Dublin 3, a commercial building with a pub and overhead offices.

He also declared shares in IMC Exploration group Plc (IMC), a mining and exploration company with its registered address at 70 Ballybough Road.

IMC’s shares are quoted on the London Stock Exchange and it is exploring becoming dual listed on an exchange in Armenia, according to a recent statement.

Earlier this year, Mr Ring and his long-time business partner Liam McGrattan had charges against them struck out when they appeared in the Dublin District Court after being found intoxicated above the Ref Pub at 70 Ballybough Road during the early days of Covid-19 restrictions in 2020.

Both men were directors of IMC from 2011 to 2018, company records show. A report filed earlier this year shows Mr Ring then owned slightly more than 1 per cent of the company’s shares while a company owned by Mr McGrattan, Wilhan Ltd, owned another 2 per cent.

The largest shareholder, Prague-based Mineral Ventures Invest spol. s.r.o, owned 51 per cent. IMC has a market capital value of approximately €5 million.

Mr Ring is a former member of Fianna Fáil and a former political ally of Bertie Ahern. He was a government appointee to the board of the Industrial Development Authority for 10 years, standing down in 2008.

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Trump’s H-1B visa plan: America’s difficulty could well be Ireland’s opportunity

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Many economic experts have contended that despite the damage he can inflict on the State’s economy, every so often Donald Trump is also capable of doing things that work to Ireland’s benefit.

The latest opportunity for Ireland could well be his plan to impose massive fees on the H-1B visas that the big American tech companies use to bring foreign workers to the United States.

Up to 85,000 of them are issued each year – and until recently the cost of applying ranged between $1,700 and $4,500.

Last weekend Trump’s administration slapped $100,000 on each application – a cost that will be borne by the likes of Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta. That is, if they wish to bring in highly qualified engineers and computer programmers.

While the US president is a recent convert to such a policy (in the past he claims to have used the visa scheme to hire staff) – stalwarts of the US political scene such as Bernie Sanders have long argued the visa is used to undercut US workers and bring in cheaper labour.

Trump’s H-1B visa fee prompts emergency guidance from companiesOpens in new window ]

In recent years, most of the visas have been granted to specialised workers from India and, to a lesser degree, China. Around 730,000 people are thought to currently hold one. Along with their families, they account for approximately 1.3 million people living in the US.

Advocates of the new fee say it will ensure such visas are only extended to the most needed workers.

The news sparked panic among workers and tech bosses alike.

While the administration tried to ease concerns by saying the fee would only apply to new applicants, staff were told by their companies not to leave the country just in case. Footage on social media purported to show a flight from San Francisco to Dubai being delayed as it allowed worried passengers to disembark moments before it was due to take off.

The direct impact on Irish workers is likely to be small – only 213 of the visas were granted to Irish people last year – but what is more relevant to Ireland is what this says about the direction Trump is taking the US economy.

What is the H-1B visa and how will changes to the scheme affect 372 Irish workers in the US?Opens in new window ]

Tech investors have warned that while the big names will be able to absorb some of the pain and find workarounds, US tech start-ups will be “kneecapped” by the change. This at a time when the US is engaged in an artificial intelligence arms race with the rest of the world.

Janice Flynn is a Chicago-born lawyer who has been working in immigration and visas for more than 20 years. She says that not only have fees increased, but the rules governing the visa lottery have been tightened as well.

Flynn notes that the H1-B has been a gateway for many people towards an eventual green card – and the chance to make a permanent life for themselves in the United States.

“If a worker wants to stay, they can have the visa for a maximum of six years, in three-year increments. And then, if the employer sponsors them for a green card before the end of the fifth year, it is extended until the green-card process is complete. That goes through quite a number of stages,” she says.

“If someone is living and working in the US they are paying taxes, they are making a contribution to society. Elon Musk had a H-1B visa straight out of university – as did many other talented people. Would Elon Musk have stayed in the United States if this had been in place? I don’t know.”

Flynn cites the boss of Tesla, SpaceX and X – formerly Twitter – as a recipient of a H-1B – but Musk is on a long list of big players in the US tech scene who has benefited from one. Google boss Sundar Pichai, Microsoft chief executive Satya Nadella, Lip-Bu Tan of Intel and Jensen Huang of Nvidia are among a cast of hundreds of senior figures who have all started their journey on a H-1B.

Musk has railed against the idea that the visas be scrapped or curtailed. Late last year he vowed to do everything in his power to prevent such a thing from happening – vowing to “go to war” on the issue.

“The reason I’m in America along with so many critical people who built SpaceX, Tesla and hundreds of other companies that made America strong is because of H-1B,” he said.

Clearly Musk has lost the “war” to those within the Maga camp who have long sought to close off this avenue for foreign workers.

Among those who was granted a H-1B, before making his way in Silicon Valley, is Limerick man John Hartnett. He now resides in Los Gatos and heads up SVG Ventures.

“It was the very same visa my wife and I came to the US on over 20 years ago, and since then we’ve built our lives here and become citizens. So this is not just a policy debate for me – it’s personal,” he says.

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“Tech companies will, by necessity, place more emphasis on US citizens and green-card holders. That’s clearly the intended focus of the new policy but it will inevitably tighten the talent pipeline for specialised skills.”

If Trump is serious about the clampdown – a move that is certain to have annoyed his “tech-bro” backers in Silicon Valley – then consideration in future might be given to locating foreign workers in Europe – and, more specifically, Ireland. Such an outcome could mean more workers attached to the European headquarters of some of Ireland’s biggest employers. More workers would mean more income tax and more money in the public purse.

Hartnett believes Ireland, Canada and Britain stand to benefit. He describes it as a potentially once-in-a-generation opportunity.

“Ireland has a real chance here – not only to expand existing R&D centres but to position itself as a strategic European innovation hub. With its strong ties to US multinationals, deep talent base and English-speaking advantage, Ireland could see an uptick in both company investment and high-skilled immigration flows.

“The opportunity is for Ireland not just to host operations, but to strengthen its role in the global talent ecosystem.”

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella benefitted from a H-1B visa. Photograph: Chona Kasinger/The New York Times
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella benefitted from a H-1B visa. Photograph: Chona Kasinger/The New York Times

Flynn agrees that this is a possibility. However, she says Dublin could also be used by tech companies to further avail of the L1 visa system. The L1 enables companies to send well-paid workers to the USa for a period of up to seven years.

This would be a potential way to circumvent the restrictions now being placed on the H-1B.

“The L1 visa option means if someone has been working for a company in Ireland for a year – they can transfer them within that company to a location in the US,” she says.

This raises the prospect of Dublin being used as a temporary staging post for individuals who are particularly in demand in the US; a year spent working in the office of an American multinational followed by a transfer to the US under the terms of the L1.

Whether companies would be prepared to accommodate someone in Dublin for a year – as opposed to stumping up the $100,000 – is an open question.

Mike Beary was Ireland country manager for Amazon Web Services for six years before stepping away in 2023. During that time the Amazon workforce here grew from 2,000 to over 6,500.

Beary believes the changes announced by Trump’s administration are ideologically driven – and have less to do with economic reasoning or a coherent immigration strategy. He suggests that it may be as simple as the US president wanting to give the Indian government a poke in the eye.

Mike Beary: 'Ireland is becoming a place where people believe they can have a good academic career – and that is a precursor to an innovative economy.' Photograph: Dara Mac Dónaill
Mike Beary: ‘Ireland is becoming a place where people believe they can have a good academic career – and that is a precursor to an innovative economy.’ Photograph: Dara Mac Dónaill

However, he says it appears to be part of a wider trend that Ireland needs to pay attention to.

“It is part of a broader effort to shut down all forms of immigration into the US – and it is going to have long-term implications for the innovation and creativity of US companies,” he says.

The focus, says Beary, shouldn’t be on “redirecting” people who would otherwise have moved from India and China to the US – but in proving to those highly trained foreign workers that Ireland can offer them a life beyond the workplace.

“Part of why Amazon is such a big user of the H-1B is that they are adding vital critical skills to existing clusters of engineers and innovators,” says Beary. “They like the idea of having people in one place – collaborating with one another – that sense of critical mass.

“It’s about saying in Ireland that we too can create those clusters and be a global centre for things like cloud computing or AI implementation. We have to show we can become a centre that is concentrated – people can come here and build their career and work with other talented, interesting people.

“At the moment Ireland is so constrained from an infrastructure perspective – it is not a question about just being able to pay these people enough so that they want to come here – it is, do you want to make a life here – afford a house – get your children in school?”

Beary, who is chairman of the governing authority of University College Dublin, says he has seen some small signs of a change in culture here. The university has added 50 incremental new lecturers to its campus this year, he says, and saw a huge number of applications from the US and the UK.

“Ireland is becoming a place where people believe they can have a good academic career – and that is a precursor to an innovative economy.”

As with many shock announcements from the White House, the situation is still fluid. In a note to members during the week, the American Immigration Lawyers Association said it was still seeking clarity on a range of questions, including whether visas would be issued for renewal and changes of employer. Economists too are asking questions. Several have suggested they may have to revise downwards their forecasts for US growth this year if such measures continue to pile up.

One of them is Atakan Bakiskan, an economist at the investment bank Berenberg. In a recent note he labelled the move as part of Trump’s “anti-growth” agenda.

“By making it very expensive for companies to attract foreign talent, and by forcing some international students to leave the country after graduation, the brain drain will weigh heavily on productivity,” said Bakiskan.

The effects of Trump’s efforts may also lead to a greater retention of talent in places such as India. Indian politicians have long worried about a brain drain – and see this as a chance to build on their own technology sector. Like Ireland, however, the debate there is dominated by concerns that the country simply doesn’t have the infrastructure to do so.

According to Beary, Ireland hasn’t missed the opportunity to reposition itself just yet. With the US seemingly cutting itself off from the outside world for the foreseeable future, Ireland “will need a story to sell over the next two to three years”.

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