Conservation in a hotter world

For most of its history, conservation has been about preservation: setting aside reserves, managing fisheries, and safeguarding livelihoods in ways that assumed tomorrow would look broadly like today. That assumption is now untenable. With global temperatures projected to rise by 3–5°C by the end of the century, the question is no longer whether ecosystems can be held in stasis, but whether they can adapt quickly enough to survive. Oceans on the move Few sectors illustrate the coming disruption more starkly than fisheries. Rising sea temperatures are already pushing commercially valuable species, from tuna to cod, into cooler waters. Small island states, heavily dependent on tuna migrating through their exclusive zones, face steep revenue declines as fish shift into the high seas where access is unregulated. In other regions, once-reliable stocks are collapsing altogether, depriving coastal communities of both food and income. Efforts to reform fisheries management—limiting catch, reducing by-catch, or creating marine reserves—were designed for stable conditions. They look increasingly fragile when the resource itself is shifting thousands of kilometers away. School of Great trevally (Caranx sexfasciatus) San Benedicto. Photo by Rhett Ayers Butler Adaptation is possible. Fisheries scientists urge investment in dynamic management tools, real-time monitoring, and governance arrangements that anticipate redistribution rather than clinging to historic boundaries. Without these, conflicts over access will intensify, undermining the very livelihoods conservation once promised to sustain. Parks that move with the climate On land, the dilemma is no less stark. Protected areas have long been the cornerstone of conservation, yet most…This article was originally published on Mongabay