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Lara Marlowe: As more states recognise Palestine, the Middle East faces dystopian and utopian possibilities

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Eleven more countries have just recognised a sovereign state of Palestine in a desperate attempt to prevent Israel completing the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian people and salvage the diplomatic goal of a two-state solution.

They include Australia, Britain and Canada and five EU countries, chief among them France.

Israel and the US threatened retaliation and condemned the wave of recognitions as a symbolic and “anti-Semitic” gesture that “rewarded terror”.

“The time has come,” French president Emmanuel Macron repeated a dozen times at the United Nations on Monday night. The Trump administration violated the 1947 Headquarters Agreement by refusing to allow Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority (PA), to travel to New York.

“The worst can happen,” Macron warned, listing present dangers: the continued slaughter of Palestinians as Israeli forces take over Gaza City; the expulsion of the population of Gaza towards Egypt; Israeli annexation of the West Bank; the deaths of the last 20 of 251 Israeli hostages taken by Hamas, and Israel’s construction of the E1 or “Doomsday” settlement which will sever the West Bank in two, cutting any future Palestinian state from its intended capital, East Jerusalem.

Symbols matter. Before this week, only two of five permanent members of the Security Council recognised Palestine. The US is now the only holdout. Palestine is recognised by 158 of the UN’s 193 member states, only six short of the 164 states which recognise Israel.

It is essential to ensure this week’s events are not merely symbolic.

“Friends of Palestine appreciate the recognition, but they want to make sure it’s not a distraction from the most urgent priority which is ending the war in Gaza,” said John Lyndon, the Irishman who heads the Alliance for Middle East Peace (Allmep), a coalition of more than 170 Israeli and Palestinian civil society organisations. “Every other priority is secondary to that.”

Allmep hosted 400 Israelis and Palestinians in Paris last June to draw up a policy document entitled the Paris Call. Many of the ideas generated by Israeli and Palestinian civil society were included in the New York Declaration, the 42-point peace plan announced in July as a precursor to this week’s wave of recognitions.

[ France joins western allies in recognising Palestinian state ]

As Macron noted on Monday night, it is not enough to defeat Hamas militarily. “It must be defeated on the political level for it to be truly dismantled.” The peace plan would ban and disarm Hamas and exclude it from general elections, which would be held within a year.

But that cannot happen without a ceasefire. The US has vetoed six UN Security Council resolutions calling for a ceasefire.

Macron was, until this year, considered the most pro-Israeli French president. But he has shown true leadership with his eleventh-hour attempt to save Palestine. The turning point was apparently his visit to a refugee camp at Al-Arish, in the Egyptian Sinai, last April. He could not forget the look in the eyes of the women and children he met there, he said.

France is the only EU member of the Security Council, the EU’s only nuclear power and the European country with the largest Jewish and Muslim population.

[ What is the aim of recognising a Palestinian state? ]

Macron’s partnership with Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman helped him win the support of the Gulf sheikhdoms and persuaded Qatar and Turkey – states which supported Hamas in the past – to abandon the extremist movement. The signatories of the New York declaration unanimously condemned the massacre by Hamas of 1,224 Israeli men, women and children on October 7th, 2023, as well as Israel’s killing of about 65,000 Gazan Palestinians.

If Israel’s far-right government and the Trump administration prevail, Israel may annex the West Bank, drive Palestinians out of Gaza and transform it into the “riviera” envisaged by Donald Trump.

Israeli finance minister Bezalel Smotrich displays a map of an area near the settlement of Maale Adumim, a land corridor known as E1, outside Jerusalem in the occupied West Bank, on August 14, 2025, after a press conference at the site. Far-right ministers have openly called for Israel's annexation of the territory. Photograph: Menahem Kahana/ AFP via Getty Images
Israeli finance minister Bezalel Smotrich displays a map of an area near the settlement of Maale Adumim, a land corridor known as E1, outside Jerusalem in the occupied West Bank, on August 14, 2025, after a press conference at the site. Far-right ministers have openly called for Israel’s annexation of the territory. Photograph: Menahem Kahana/ AFP via Getty Images

On September 17th, Israel’s extremist finance minister Bezalel Smotrich said he anticipates a real estate “bonanza” in Gaza. “We have done the demolition phase, which is always the first phase of urban renewal,” he said. There is a detailed plan for the “renewal” of Gaza on Trump’s desk, Smotrich added.

Prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu insists that there will be no Palestinian state. In his “super Sparta” speech of September 16th, Netanyahu tried to sell Israelis a premonition of a semi-autarkic state that will live by the sword, in economic decline and in isolation from the world.

In ancient times, a few hundred Spartans fought the much more powerful Persian army. “The problem is that Sparta was annihilated,” columnist Ben Caspit wrote in Maariv newspaper.

Israel’s wanton use of force has endangered its association agreement with the EU, the Abraham Accords, which normalised relations with several Arab countries, and the 1978 Camp David accords which made peace between Israel and Egypt.

Soon after Israel attacked Qatar on September 9th, Saudi Arabia concluded a defence pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan. Egypt is massing troops to prevent Palestinian refugees pouring across its border with Gaza.

[ Gaza crisis dominates as world leaders meet ]

The Middle East now faces dystopian and utopian possibilities: the far-right’s vision of a Jewish people living in Eretz Israel void of Palestinians but permanently at war, or the flawed but infinitely preferable two-state solution proposed by France and Saudi Arabia and endorsed by most of the world’s nations.

“The dystopian vision should not be on the table because it is illegal. It’s immoral. It’s a war crime,” says John Lyndon. “The consequences of doing something like that should be so vast for Israel that it’s simply not available.”

The ultimate outcome hangs on the whim of the only person who could, should he choose to, wield authority over Netanyahu and his extremist allies: the erratic, volatile and staunchly pro-Israel president of the United States. That is not a reassuring prospect.

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Opinion

Paracetamol use during pregnancy not linked to autism, our study of 2.5 million children shows

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7 hours ago

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24 September 2025

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United States President Donald Trump recently claimed that using the common painkiller acetaminophen (also known as paracetamol and by the brand name Tylenol in the US) during pregnancy is fuelling the rise in autism diagnoses. He then went on to suggest pregnant women should “tough it out” rather than use the common painkiller if they experience fever or pain.

This announcement has caused alarm and confusion worldwide. But despite Trump’s claim, there is no strong scientific evidence to back it up. Our study of nearly 2.5 million births in Sweden published in 2024 shows no evidence that acetaminophen use during pregnancy increases a child’s risk of autism. This is the largest study conducted on the subject to date.

To understand whether acetaminophen really poses a risk in pregnancy, we turned to Sweden’s national health registers, which are among the most comprehensive in the world. Our study followed nearly 2.5 million children born between 1995 and 2019, tracking them for up to 26 years.

Using prescription records and interviews that midwives conducted during prenatal visits, we could see which mothers reported using acetaminophen (about 7.5% of pregnancies) and which did not.

We also made sure to account for any variables that may have affected the results of our statistical analysis – including controlling for health factors, such as fever or pain, which would have influenced whether or not a mother used acetaminophen during her pregnancy. This was to ensure a more fair comparison between the two groups.

We then looked at the children’s neurodevelopmental outcomes – specifically whether they were diagnosed with autism, ADHD or an intellectual disability.

The real strength of our study came from being able to compare siblings. This allowed us to compare children born to the same mother, where acetaminophen had been used during one child’s pregnancy but not the other. We compared over 45,000 sibling pairs, where at least one sibling had an autism diagnosis.

This sibling design is powerful because siblings share much of their genetics and family environment. This allows us to tease apart whether the drug itself – rather than underlying family traits or health conditions – is responsible for any apparent risks for neurodevelopmental outcomes.

Acetaminophen use

When we first looked at the entire population, we saw a pattern that echoed earlier studies: children whose mothers reported using acetaminophen during pregnancy were slightly more likely to be diagnosed with autism, ADHD or an intellectual disability.

But once we ran the sibling comparisons, that association completely disappeared. In other words, when we compared sets of siblings where one was exposed in the womb to acetaminophen and one was not, there was no difference in their likelihood of later being diagnosed with autism, ADHD or an intellectual disability.

A pregnant woman holds a glass of water in one hands and a pill in the other hand.
Our study found no association with acetaminophen use during pregnancy and a child’s risk of being diagnosed with autism.
Dragana Gordic/ Shutterstock

Our study is not the only one to put this question to the test. Researchers in Japan recently published a study using a similar sibling-comparison design, and their results closely matched ours.

Importantly, they replicated our findings in a population with a different genetic background and where patterns of acetaminophen use during pregnancy are quite different. Nearly 40% of mothers in Japan reported using the drug during pregnancy. In comparison, less than 10% of Swedish mothers had used it.

Despite these differences, the conclusion was the same. When siblings are compared, there is no evidence that acetaminophen use during pregnancy increases the risk of autism or ADHD.

These findings mark an important shift from earlier studies, which relied on more limited data, used smaller cohorts and didn’t account for genetic differences. They also did not fully account for why some mothers used pain relief during pregnancy while others didn’t.

For example, mothers who take acetaminophen are more likely to also have migraines, chronic pain, fever or serious infections. These are conditions that are themselves genetically linked to autism or ADHD, as well as a child’s likelihood of later being diagnosed with one of these conditions.

These types of “confounding factors” can create associations that look convincing on the surface, but may not reflect a true cause-and-effect relationship.

That brings us to the real question on many people’s minds: what does this mean if you’re pregnant and dealing with pain or fever?

It’s important to recognise that untreated illness during pregnancy can be dangerous. A high fever in pregnancy, for example, is known to increase the risk of complications for both mother and baby. “Toughing it out,” as the president suggested, is not a risk-free option.

That’s why professional medical organisations such as the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists and the UK’s Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency continue to recommend acetaminophen (paracetamol) as the safest fever reducer and pain reliever during pregnancy when used at the lowest effective dose and only when necessary. This has been the guidance for decades.



Read more:
Paracetamol, pregnancy and autism: what the science really shows

Of course, if someone finds themselves needing to take acetaminophen regularly over a longer period of time, that’s a decision best made in consultation with their doctor or midwife. But the idea that acetaminophen use during pregnancy causes autism simply isn’t supported by the best available science.

The greater danger is that alarmist messaging will discourage pregnant women from treating pain or fever – putting both themselves and their babies at risk.

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Opinion

The Irish Times view on presidential nominations: Too narrow a field

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8 hours ago

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24 September 2025

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Only a few days ago, it still seemed possible that voters would have a choice of up to six candidates in next month’s presidential election. But when nominations closed at noon on Wednesday, only three names had made it on to the ballot paper. That reflected the narrowing that had taken place over the previous four days.

First, Sinn Féin announced that it would be supporting Catherine Connolly rather than putting forward a candidate of its own. That was followed by businessman Gareth Sheridan’s failure to secure the requisite support from local authorities.

There was a flurry of excitement in the final hours before nominations closed, as Maria Steen edged ever closer to the 20 signatures from members of the Oireachtas which the Constitution requires. But the conservative campaigner ultimately fell two names short.

As a result, the electorate now finds itself presented with the smallest field of candidates since the presidential election of 1990.

That is regrettable. A broader, more varied choice would surely have led to a more vigorous and wide-ranging debate, which in turn would have stimulated public interest and potentially increased voter turnout.

Steen’s supporters have been quick to blame her failure to secure a nomination on the main political parties, whom they accuse of shutting down democratic choice.

The charge is unfounded; between them, Connolly, Jim Gavin and Heather Humphreys command the support of nearly every party in the Oireachtas – almost 85 per cent of its members. The suggestion that parties with candidates in the field should ease the path of potential opponents reached absurd levels on Tuesday when it was suggested that Connolly herself might sign Steen’s nomination papers.

It should not shock anyone that political parties pursue their own electoral advantage in order to achieve the objectives they were set out up to accomplish. That, after all, is the proposition they presented to their voters.

Where Ireland differs from most of its international counterparts is in the number of Independents it elects. As a result, there were more than enough Independent TDs and Senators available to ensure Steen’s nomination. They chose not to do so, presumably for a variety of different reasons. That is why she did not succeed.

The fact that she came so close is largely due to the efforts of Peadar Tóibín, leader of Aontú, one of the smallest parties in the Oireachtas. In the end, he fell short, in part because the campaign itself began too late and ran out of time.

But there are lessons here for those who believe Irish political discourse is too narrow and that some voices are excluded. The remedy to that lies not in the kindness of opponents but in effective, organised and sustained political work.

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Opinion

The Irish Times view on textile waste: what a load of rubbish

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8 hours ago

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24 September 2025

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Ireland is the second largest producer of textile waste per head in Europe, second only to Belgium. We each consume 53kg of textiles each year – more than double the European average. To put the figure in context, a T-shirt weighs between 100 and 250 grams, and a winter duvet can weigh 3 kg.

It’s a lot of clothes, bedding and curtains to throw out and most of it goes in the bin, with only a third being recycled via clothes banks and charity shops. Given the dubious distinction of being one of the worst offenders when it comes to textile waste you might assume that we would quickly and wholeheartedly embrace new rules to reduce textile waste adopted by the European Parliament earlier this month.

Under the new directive, producers who make textiles available in the EU will have to cover the cost of their collection, sorting and recycling. The rules will apply to all producers, including online sellers, irrespective of whether they are established in an EU country or outside it.

The measures will be implemented through a producer responsibility scheme similar to the Re-turn system for drink bottles and cans set up by packaging and drinks companies.

Member states have 30 months from the directive’s entry into force to establish a scheme. There is, of course, no reason why it cannot be done sooner and every reason why it should be.

But if the Re-turn scheme is any guide, the Government will be in no rush when it finds itself caught between industry lobbying and fears the measure may push up prices.

The Single Use Plastic directive came into effect in 2019 but the Irish deposit-based scheme for recycling drink bottles and cans launched in February 2024. Many other European countries brought them in 20 years ago.

Despite initial teething problems, the Re-turn scheme has been supported by the public and has helped the industry meet its EU-mandated recycling targets. There is no reason to believe consumers will not support a textile recycling scheme sooner rather than later.

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