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Finger on the trigger: How NATO is responding to Russia’s airspace violations

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Russia’s repeated violations of NATO airspace in the past few weeks are raising a difficult question for the alliance: Whether to respond by shooting down Russian aircraft.

On Friday, three Russian MiG-31s violated Estonian airspace for 12 minutes before being intercepted by NATO fighter jets, including Italian F-35s participating in the alliance’s enhanced Baltic air policing mission. Earlier this month, Russian drones entered Poland’s territory and at least three were shot down after Polish F-16s and Dutch F-35s responded.

“Russia should be in no doubt: NATO and allies will employ, in accordance with international law, all necessary military and non-military tools to defend ourselves,” NATO ambassadors said in a statement released on Tuesday.

Moscow insists it’s done nothing wrong.

Several NATO countries including Poland and Sweden are now warning they’re ready to shoot down Russian aircraft entering their airspace.

But according to Charly Salonius-Pasternak, CEO of the Helsinki-based Nordic West Office think tank, there is a fundamental difference between Moscow and NATO. “Russia has said they think they’re in a military conflict with us and the West. We do not see it that way and because of that, our rules of engagement are different,” he said.

Here’s what you need to know about NATO’s response so far.

1. What are NATO’s rules of engagement?

The alliance’s rules of engagement are classified.

They define “the parameters for what the military can do within any given situation, that means that they are very different depending on the mission or the operation,” explained Oana Lungescu, a former NATO spokesperson who is currently a distinguished fellow with the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London.

Rules of engagement must be in line with the alliance’s political guidance, she added. “For NATO, the main political guidance is that it’s a defensive alliance, whose aim is to deter aggression and prevent any conflict, and should that fail, to defend against it and defeat it.”

They are approved by the North Atlantic Council (NAC), which gathers all NATO allies. They are implemented by the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), currently Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, a U.S. Air Force general who also commands U.S. forces in Europe. Like every political decision within the alliance, rules of engagement require consensus.

2. What about national armed forces?

NATO rules of engagement do not prevent national armed forces from making their own decisions on their soil when they are under national command.

On Tuesday, Lithuania adopted new rules allowing its military to react to airspace violations “earlier and faster.” Romania, whose airspace was violated multiple times by Russian drones in the past months, on Thursday convenes its Supreme Defense Council to define the rules of engagement in case of more incursions by drones or manned aircraft.

“We are ready for any decision aimed at destroying objects that may threaten us, such as Russian fighter jets,” Donald Tusk said during a press conference, while adding that some kind of consensus must also be reached among NATO allies. | Mateusz Slodkowski/Getty Images

However, there can be risks if a country’s unilateral action leads to escalation, as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk hinted on Monday.

“We are ready for any decision aimed at destroying objects that may threaten us, such as Russian fighter jets,” he said during a press conference, while adding that some kind of consensus must also be reached among NATO allies.

“I must be 100 percent certain … that all our allies will treat this in exactly the same way as we do. I must be 100 percent certain that when the conflict enters such an acute phase, we will not be alone in this,” the Polish prime minister continued. “We need to think twice before deciding on actions that could trigger a very acute phase of the conflict.”

But that scenario would not have applied to Friday’s situation over Estonia because Baltic states do not have their own fighter jet fleets and rely on NATO’s air policing missions.

According to a former NATO official, it’s precisely because Estonia doesn’t have its own warplanes that Russia violated the country’s airspace: “If the intrusion had taken place over Finland, the Finns could have decided to take it out. In the Baltic airspace, we are obliged to go up the NATO chain of command.”

3. Why didn’t NATO shoot down the Russian fighter jets?

There are several reasons — both political and military — why NATO’s warplanes didn’t take down the Russian MiG-31s last week.

“Decisions on whether to engage in shooting aircraft … are always based on available intelligence regarding the threat posed by the aircraft,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said Tuesday, arguing that “no immediate threat” was detected in Estonia.

He echoed Estonia’s Prime Minister Kristen Michal, who said “there are certainly various parameters for the use of force,” hinting that Friday’s incident didn’t call for it despite its obvious intentional nature.

NATO’s response was in line with procedure, Estonia’s former air force chief Jaak Tarien told local media, adding that force is not immediately used during peacetime, under the assumption the incursions could be a mistake.

According to Mykola Bielieskov, a Ukrainian military analyst and research fellow at Ukraine’s National Institute of Strategic Studies, both the risk of escalation as well as uncertainty about Donald Trump’s stance played a role in how NATO reacted.

“Conditionally, no one will start World War III because of this,” he said. European countries “think that NATO is restrained by the fact that there is no certainty about the reaction and position of the U.S. under the Trump administration.”

4. Are NATO countries looking to change the rules of engagement?

It’s unclear whether the current rules of engagement allow NATO fighters to shoot down Russian warplanes — and if so, under what circumstances.

Inside the alliance, the general sense is that NATO’s defensive capabilities are up to the job.

“There’ll be lots of debates” after Estonia, said one NATO diplomat, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, “but there was no sense we were behind the curve.”

There is an ongoing debate as to whether the rules for NATO’s air policing missions should be tightened. “Discussions will continue in NATO on appropriate measures and responses. It is important that Russia changes behavior,” said a senior NATO diplomat.

Top officials in Estonia, Lithuania and the Czech Republic are calling for a more forceful response the next time Russia tests NATO, namely taking down Moscow’s warplanes. “We must respond appropriately, including possibly shooting down Russian aircraft,” said Czech President Petr Pavel.

Speaking on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly on Tuesday, the U.S. president was asked if he believed NATO countries could shoot down intruding Russian aircraft. “Yes, I do,” he responded.

“Roger that,” responded Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski.

5. How could NATO change the rules of engagement?

In most cases, changing the rules of engagement would have to go through the NAC, where NATO allies would make a consensus-based decision relying on military advice and discussions with SACEUR Grynkewich.

Since the full-scale war in Ukraine started, however, SACEUR has more authority to make adjustments without going through the NAC — such as sending more ships or planes to a given area.

“NATO’s defense plans were activated on Feb. 24, 2022. Those plans … continue to be adjusted, that also gives SACEUR significant authority over how he uses assets and forces,” said Lungescu, the former NATO spokesperson.

6. What happened the last time a NATO country shot down a Russian aircraft? 

In 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian Sukhoi-24M near the Turkish-Syrian border after a 17-second airspace violation and following several warnings.

Crucially, however, that wasn’t part of a NATO mission — unlike Friday’s incident — but rather under national authority. “They had their own air force and took the decision nationally and only informed allies (in detail) afterwards. It proved to be highly effective,” the senior NATO diplomat mentioned above said.

Ankara triggered NATO’s Article 4 and played the warning audio to the NAC, which then issued a statement. After that, the military alliance helped Turkey monitor its airspace with more AWACS early warning aircraft.

According to Estonia’s Tarien, the incident had consequences: Moscow imposed trade sanctions on Ankara, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ultimately apologized.

However, Russian planes stopped flying through Turkish airspace.

Veronika Melkozerova and Jan Cienski contributed to this report.

This article has been updated.

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It’s got Peaky Blinders swagger, says House of Guinness writer

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Yasmin RufoBBC News

imageNetflix James Norton in character as Sean Rafferty wearing a black top hat and white scarfNetflix

Taking family power struggles and turning them into global television sensations is becoming something of a habit for screenwriter Steven Knight.

With Peaky Blinders, he took a Birmingham street gang and made them a cultural force. Now, Knight is betting on another dynasty, one rooted in brewing, wealth and legacy.

House of Guinness, which launches on Netflix on Thursday, tells the story of Ireland’s most famous family name at the moment of crisis – Sir Benjamin Guinness has died and his four children, each concealing dark secrets, are left to steer the brewery’s fate.

Knight says when he looked into the real-life Guinness family, “it was immediate that I realised this is an incredible drama and story”.

He was struck by “the characters, events and how it all intermeshed with history and what was going on at the time”.

While the story is based on real events, it is a drama first and foremost. Fact and fiction have been blended together, but Knight says he doesn’t see those two things as mutually exclusive, as “it’s often the true events that are the least believable”.

“Some of the historical events are so amazing and unexpected you wouldn’t make them up yourself,” he tells the BBC.

imageNetflix

One of the imagined figures in the Netflix drama is Sean Rafferty, the brewery’s foreman, played by Happy Valley star James Norton, whose fate becomes entangled with the dynasty’s power struggles.

Norton says his character is an “amalgamation of lots of different people” who existed at the time, adding that he found researching into the history of Guinness “remarkable and fascinating”.

The 40-year-old explains that as soon as he read the script he was ready to sign up to the show.

“I read the first four scripts all at once and it was a no-brainer,” he says. “Almost every scene starts with Rafferty’s silhouette in a window in a cloud of smoke and I thought ‘sign me up, that’s really cool’.”

Most of the actors in the series were Irish, something Norton says added a level of pressure when it came to perfecting the accent and admits he was “so scared on the first day”.

imageGetty Images James Norton, wearing a black and white patterned shirt, attends the "King & Conqueror" Global Premiere at the BFI Southbank on August 14, 2025 in London, EnglandGetty Images

“You work really hard at the beginning and once you crack the first big dialogue scene and have spoken the first lines there’s no going back,” he explains.

The first scene Norton filmed was one where he punches three disloyal workers at the Guinness factory. He says he used the line ‘I see your three names written in black ash up there’ to get back into the accent for subsequent scenes.

‘Once in a lifetime experience’

Starring alongside Norton is Irish actress Danielle Galligan who plays Lady Olivia, an aristocrat who marries into the Guinness family. After the British monarch, she was the richest woman in Britain and Ireland at the time.

The actress says she loved researching her character and understanding what she was really like.

“She’s such a firecracker in the series and then I actually found out she was also a very solitary and silent woman who painted lots of watercolours,” Galligan explains.

“She was a woman who had everything and yet was still looking for something. Learning about her gave me a sense of her lack of fulfilment and added another layer to her.”

Galligan says it was very special to tell an Irish story and “to do it on a global scale is a once-in-a-lifetime kind of experience”.

Joining Galligan is Niamh McCormack, whose character is part of the rebellious Fenian Brotherhood, and Jack Gleeson, who is best known for playing Joffrey Baratheon in Game of Thrones.

imageNetflix Jack Gleeson as Byron Hedges wearing a yellow coat and brown cap holding two bags and running in the streetNetflix

McCormack and Gleeson say they are proud to be part of a series that puts Ireland on the map, but admit that with pride comes pressure over how it will be received by audiences at home.

“It’s always a factor but I tried not to think about it too much,” Gleeson says. “You want things to be represented well but also hopefully people know not to take it too seriously as a historical document.”

Knight was less worried about what audiences would think, admitting: “I should care but I don’t – if you worry what people are going to think you can’t really do anything as you’d be trying to please too many different people.”

House of Guinness has already been compared to the likes of Succession, The Crown and Peaky Blinders but Knight is indifferent about how people compare it.

“People say every project is a cross between stuff and I don’t take that too seriously, I’m confident that this is its own thing,” he says.

imageGetty Images Screenwriter Steven Knight poses during a photocall to promote the dance theatre adaptation 'Peaky Blinders: The Redemption Of Thomas Shelby,' on June 10, 2025 in Birmingham, England.Getty Images

For Norton, who is also currently starring in BBC’s historical drama King & Conqueror, to be compared to such successful shows is a positive.

“To be in the same breath as those dynasty shows is great and I’m happy if we’re included among that group,” he says. Gleeson agrees and explains that this drama “takes the best bits of the rest and adds its own magic and essence”.

Knight does admit that there are many similarities between House of Guinness and Peaky Blinders and the shows have influenced each other as the 66-year-old has recently finished working on the Peaky Blinder film, The Immortal Man, which will see Cillian Murphy reprise his role as Birmingham gangster Tommy Shelby.

“Sometimes parallels are pointed out that I don’t even have a clue about,” he laughs. “But there are a lot of similarities – the family, it has the same energy, humour and swagger.”

imageBBC Studios Cillian Murphy in character as Thomas Shelby wearing a cap and white shirtBBC Studios

Knight is also involved in writing the new James Bond film, which he previously told the BBC had always been on his bucket list.

The movie will be directed by Dune’s Denis Villeneuve and is currently in development and being overseen by Amazon MGM Studios after long-serving masterminds Barbara Broccoli and Michael G Wilson stood down in February.

When asked a question about Bond, Knight smiles and says he’s not able to talk about it but does admit that after the success of several of his shows, he feels a greater freedom to write more creatively.

And with House of Guinness, he hopes to have used that freedom to make this latest dynasty saga a success in its own right.

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‘Pathetic’ fines won’t stop water pollution, say campaigners

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Luke SprouleBBC News NI Mid Ulster reporter

imageBBC

Campaigners have said stronger deterrents are needed to stop water pollution after figures obtained by BBC News NI showed there were 63 fines handed down between 2020 and 2024.

In the same period there were 4,202 water pollution incidents confirmed by the Northern Ireland Environment Agency (NIEA).

The Department for Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (Daera) is consulting on whether fixed penalty notices should be introduced, which would mean polluters could be fined without the lengthy process of prosecuting them through the courts.

Friends of the Earth said unless there was a more effective deterrent there would be “more and more of these shocking crimes against water”.

In recent years large blooms of potentially toxic blue-green algae in Lough Neagh – caused in large part by long-term pollution – have grabbed the headlines.

But incidents of pollution happen right across Northern Ireland’s waterways, not just those which eventually lead to the lough.

Daera said it and the NIEA took the issue very seriously and that the NIEA investigated all reports it received and pursued offenders.

Call to scrap limit on fines

James Orr from Friends of the Earth said the figures revealed “an epidemic in relation to how we’re treating our rivers, lakes and sea loughs”.

He said fixed penalty notices – which are already used for things such as dog fouling or illegal parking – had pros and cons.

“We can’t have these cases dragged through the courts for years and years and then a pathetic fine introduced at the end.

“On the one hand we would be quite encouraged that we could simplify these processes.

“On the other hand, we need the penalty to reflect the seriousness of the crime.

“This is not like parking on a double yellow line, this is much more serious.”

Under the current rules, the maximum fine that can be handed down is £20,000.

Mr Orr called for this limit to be scrapped and said there should be an independent Environmental Protection Agency.

The Daera consultation on whether to introduce fixed penalty notices is also asking people whether or not the maximum fines should be increased to £50,000 in magistrates’ courts and whether the limit should be removed entirely in Crown courts.

imageA man with medium length blonde hair, wearing a khaki linen overshirt and a black undershirt, stood against a railing overlooking a body of water in Belfast. Trees and several structures, including the yellow harland and wolff cranes, are visible in the far distance.

All 63 fines ranged from £200 to £10,000.

Of these, six were more than £5,000.

In a statement, Daera said formal enforcement action was normally considered for water pollution incidents which it deemed to have a “high” or “medium” severity.

Lower severity incidents normally did not lead to formal enforcement action and would see NIEA work with the polluter to identify the cause and stop it happening again.

From 2020 to 2024, 96 incidents were deemed to be high severity and 542 medium, with the rest categorised as low.

People who use the waterways have said they are frustrated that incidents of pollution keep happening.

In June, anglers on the Moyola River raised the alarm after the river was turned brown due to what they believe was discharge from industry.

Maurice Dorrity, who has been fishing on the river for decades, said the situation was getting worse.

“I had a meeting on the bank of the river 30 years ago [to discuss] the same problem and it’s not got any better, it’s still the same,” he said.

“It has a devastating effect on the fish life.

“On the bed of the river the fish depends on the invertebrates, small insects to sustain their life, just like we need the ground to grow our crops.

“It clogs up all that invertebrate life on the bed of the river and it means the fish are not getting the food they require.”

imageBrown water in a river with green vegetation on each side of the riverbank

Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) councillor Denies Johnston reported the incident to the NIEA.

She said many of the problems were stemming from some “irresponsible” farmers and industries.

“There must be a two-prong response, we must incentivise good practice and punish infringements,” she said.

“Until we clamp down on those who are disregarding the advice, ignoring regulations and putting their own selfish interests ahead of our environment, our waters will continue to run orange (as was the case in the Moyola in July) and green (as in Lough Neagh).”

A Daera spokesperson said in addition to fines, other methods including warning letters and notices were available to it.

They added that strengthening environmental governance was a top priority for Daera Minister Andrew Muir.

imageA bald man waring a blue shirt and blue and navy rainjacket, pictured from the chest up, stood in a field with green grass and hedges visible in background alongside a small orange digger. It is a cloudy day.

Incidents do not have to be large in scale to cause damage.

Earlier in September, an incident south of Dungannon led to sewage spewing into the River Rhone.

The NIEA said it was caused by wipes and rags being disposed of incorrectly.

Democratic Unionist Party councillor Clement Cuthbertson said it was a reminder that it was not just agriculture to blame for pollution.

“The landowner had livestock in the field and they had to be moved back to allow a clean up to take place,” he said.

“There needs to be investment on the network.

“Our towns and our villages are expanding all the time, but to be fair to NI Water they are still working on the original pipeworks that could be 40 or 50 years old.”

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A new Trump policy on Ukraine, or more of the same?

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President Donald Trump’s reversal on Russia this week stems from growing impatience with Vladimir Putin and “the reality on the ground,” Vice President JD Vance said Wednesday – even as skeptical allies see the president’s latest position as another in a long line of back-and-forth pronouncements on the war.

Trump’s comments at the U.N. General Assembly and on social media — in which the president said Ukraine can and should win back the land it lost to Russia — came after growing frustration with Russian intrusions in the airspace over NATO nations and as Putin shows no interest in negotiating a peace deal.

“We have engaged in incredibly good faith negotiations with both the Russians and the Ukrainians and I believe the president is growing incredibly impatient with the Russians,” Vance said during an event in North Carolina. “If the Russians refuse to negotiate in good faith, I think it’s going to be very, very bad for their country. That’s what the president made clear. It’s not a shift in position, it’s an acknowledgment of the reality on the ground.”

Vance’s comments come a day after Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York. Shortly after the meeting, Trump publicly reversed his position that Russia should keep the land it has won.

The president also said the U.S. will continue to supply weapons to NATO “for NATO to do what they want with them.”

A White House official pointed to Trump emphasizing that it’ll take European support for Ukraine to prevail as a clear signal that he remains hesitant about any new U.S. commitments to the country’s defense. The shifting assessment, as Vance’s comments hinted at, “is about sending Putin a message that will eventually help get him to the table.”

The comments sent hopeful ripples throughout the parts of Washington and allied capitals that support Ukraine. But it also stirred a feeling of deja vu, as NATO nations have seen rhetorical flourishes from Trump before, with the administration’s actions not always following suit.

“It’s great to put that pressure on the Russians — for now — until the administration decides something else” a Brussels-based diplomat said.

A third official, also Brussels-based, worried that Trump’s comments could simply be the president “amplifying the viewpoint of the last person he spoke to,” that does not amount to a significant shift in policy.

Another official from a NATO nation backed up that wariness. “We are moving forward with the plans we’ve made for Ukraine before this. We’ll see what happens.” The official added that the new effort for European nations to buy American weapons for shipment to Ukraine is now in place and “we feel good about that.”

The war in Ukraine entered another phase over the summer, with Ukrainian long-range drone strikes hitting Russian oil refineries sometimes hundreds of miles inside the country’s borders, putting Moscow’s major export – oil and gas – at some risk. The strikes bring the war home to ordinary Russians in the form of gas shortages, and danger to oil industry workers.

At the same time, Russia has been launching hundreds of drones and missiles at Ukrainian cities and purely civilian targets, killing people where there is no economic or military benefit to the strike.

Over the past week, Russia also sent 19 drones into Poland, another into Romanian airspace, and Russian fighter planes have violated Estonian airspace. The incursions have led NATO to beef up air patrols along its eastern flank and suggest to some that Putin might be willing to expand the war, or at least is probing NATO air defenses for some future action.

A fourth European official acknowledged the broader unreliability of Trump’s shape-shifting on the war but was encouraged that his comments on Tuesday reflect that “he is starting to wake up to the reality with Putin. That’s taken him a while, but it shows the messages from [other NATO leaders] are getting through.”

It’s been less than seven months since Trump memorably told Zelenskyy in the Oval Office that Ukraine “didn’t have the cards.” In his remarks to the United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday, Zelenskyy looked to harness whatever momentum Trump’s about-face might create, urging democratic allies to unite in an effort to pressure Russia to finally negotiate an end to the war.

“If it takes weapons to do it, if it takes pressure on Russia, then it must be done, and it must be done now. Otherwise, Putin will keep driving the war forward wider and deeper. And we told you before, Ukraine is only the first,” he said.

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