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Vanishing waters in a warming world

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This roundup of The Conversation’s climate coverage was first published in our award-winning weekly climate action newsletter, Imagine.


Around the world, rivers and lakes that sustained civilisations for millennia are vanishing before our eyes. The Caspian Sea – the world’s largest inland body of water – has shrunk dramatically in just a few decades. The Ganges nourishes hundreds of millions of people across India and Bangladesh, yet is drying at a rate scientists say is unprecedented in the past thousand years.

Climate change isn’t solely to blame for the woes of the Caspian or the Ganges, of course. In nearly all cases, what’s going on is some combination of human and climate factors. But there is a trend.

Let’s start with rivers.

Writing in 2022, Catherine E. Russell, then of the University of Leicester, notes that:

“The Loire in France broke records in mid-August for its low water levels, while photos circulating online show the mighty Danube, Rhine, Yangtze and Colorado rivers all but reduced to trickles.”

In her analysis of why rivers worldwide are running dry, she points out that:

“climate change is altering where freshwater is found: such that, in general, places with plenty are getting more while places with little are getting less.”

She says this is making rivers more “flashy”: prone to breaking records for both high and low water levels. The flashiness is exacerbated by humans extracting water and putting rivers in concrete straitjackets.

So what we’re seeing isn’t just a series of droughts. These drying rivers represent a structural change in how water is moving through the land, driven by climate change but also decades of overuse and engineering decisions.




Read more:
Rivers worldwide are running dry – here’s why and what we can do about it


This is particularly apparent in the Ganges, India’s largest and longest river. There, “stretches of river that once supported year-round navigation are now impassable in summer. Large boats that once travelled the Ganges from Bengal through Varanasi now run aground where water once flowed freely.”

That’s according to Mehebub Sahana, a rivers expert at the University of Manchester, who has written about a new study that puts the current drying in historical context. Scientists in India, writes Sahana, gathered 1,300 years of flow data and say the river and its wider system of tributaries has never faced dry spells as severe as it has in the past decade.

Sandbanks

Sandbanks on the shores of the Padma River (the local name for the Ganges) in Bangladesh. Dams upstream in India have meant there is less water flowing into the Padma.
Pavel Vatsura / shutterstock

As the world warms, Sahana notes, “the monsoon which feeds the Ganges has grown increasingly erratic”. But there are other factors at play: “Water has been diverted into irrigation canals, groundwater has been pumped for agriculture, and industries have proliferated along the river’s banks. More than a thousand dams and barrages have radically altered the river itself.”

In Sahana’s words, this results in “a river system increasingly unable to replenish itself”.

To save the Ganges, India will have to extract less groundwater and irrigation water. Upstream India and downstream Bangladesh will have to better coordinate their efforts. And major funding and political agreements “must treat rivers like the Ganges as global priorities”.




Read more:
The Ganges River is drying faster than ever – here’s what it means for the region and the world


‘A relatively new phenomenon’

Something similar is happening with lakes.

While at Keele University, the geographer Antonia Law looked at the climate-related threat to lake wildlife.

She notes there has already been a “staggering decline” in freshwater species diversity since the 1970s, but that “climate change [now] threatens to drive even deeper losses”.

“Lake heatwaves – when surface water temperatures rise above their average for longer than five days – are a relatively new phenomenon. But by the end of this century, heatwaves could last between three and 12 times longer and become 0.3°C to 1.7°C hotter. In some places, particularly near the equator, lakes may enter a permanent heatwave state. Smaller lakes may shrink or disappear entirely, along with the wildlife they contain, while deeper lakes will face less intense but longer heatwaves.”

Needless to say, this is not great news for any person or animal that relies on those lakes. That’s particularly the case as “unlike those living elsewhere, most lake animals cannot simply move to another habitat once their lake becomes uninhabitable”. Many lakes, says Law, are on course for “a sweltering, breathless and lifeless future”.




Read more:
Climate change: world’s lakes are in hot water – threatening rare wildlife


That’s the case even for the biggest lake (sort of) of all: the Caspian Sea.

Here’s Simon Goodman, an ecologist at the University of Leeds who has tracked the seals in the Caspian for more than two decades:

“Once a haven for flamingos, sturgeon and thousands of seals, fast-receding waters are turning the northern coast of the Caspian Sea into barren stretches of dry sand. In some places, the sea has retreated more than 50km. Wetlands are becoming deserts, fishing ports are being left high and dry, and oil companies are dredging ever-longer channels to reach their offshore installations.”

Goodman says variations in the Caspian Sea level were once linked to agricultural irrigation (the same thing that caused the Aral Sea to disappear a few hundred miles to the east), but “now global warming is the main driver of decline”.

That’s because rising temperatures are disrupting the water cycle. Rivers and rainfall are bringing less water, while the hotter sun is evaporating more water than ever. With no link to the wider oceans (aside from a single canal, which is also drying up), the Caspian just can’t keep up.

As things stand, Goodman says, the decline could eventually reach 18 metres, “which is about the height of a six-storey building”. “Even an optimistic ten-metre decline would uncover 112,000 square kilometres of seabed – an area larger than Iceland.”

The five countries around the Caspian Sea have recognised the danger. The world does not need another Aral Sea. But Goodman fears “the rate of decline may outstrip the pace of political cooperation”.




Read more:
Climate change is fast shrinking the world’s largest inland sea


There are many more stories like these. We’ve looked at the Ganges and the Caspian Sea, but this could easily have been a newsletter about Lake Victoria, the world’s second largest freshwater lake, or about drying rivers in Europe making it harder to generate nuclear power (pushing up energy prices in the UK), or about the complete disappearance of Bolivia’s second largest lake.

In all these cases, it’s worth remembering that once a river runs dry or a lake shrivels up, it’s not just water that disappears: it’s entire ecosystems and ways of life.

Opinion

The Irish Times view on Donald Trump’s autism warning: the war on science must be resisted

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Donald Trump’s performance at the White House this week, asserting that a common painkiller is driving a surge in autism, was a particularly egregious piece of political malpractice, even for him. His sweeping claims about acetaminophen were not even reflected in his administration’s own accompanying documentation, which spoke in qualified terms about possible associations and the need for further study.

Outside the US, acetaminophen is sold under its international name, paracetamol, and is generally the first-choice painkiller advised for use during pregnancy following decades of use and large studies showing it is safe at recommended doses.

Citing extensive research, the World Health Organisation said there is no consistent association between acetaminophen use in pregnancy and autism; it advised women to follow the guidance of their doctors and pointedly also reminded the public that vaccines do not cause autism, contrary to claims made by US Health and Human Services secretary Robert F Kennedy jnr.

Research on acetaminophen in pregnancy has produced mixed findings. Some observational studies report associations with later neurodevelopmental diagnoses; others that compare siblings or control better for confounding factors find the association falls away. In clinical terms, the advice given to pregnant women remains unchanged: use necessary medicines judiciously and at the lowest effective dose.

Ireland is governed by EU standards on public health and communication. Those frameworks require strong, reproducible evidence before practice is revised. But unsupported theories like the ones now coming out of the White House do not stop at borders. Similar narratives circulate widely on this side of the Atlantic, often folded into older, discredited vaccine myths. But the record is clear: large studies across many countries have found no causal link.

As for the larger question of why recorded autism rates have risen, the best explanation is multi-layered: diagnostic criteria have expanded; awareness among clinicians and parents has grown; screening has become more routine; social acceptance has encouraged families to seek assessment. These factors explain much of the steep increase in the US and Europe, including Ireland. Specialists also point to a complex interplay of genetic predisposition and broader environmental influences as possible contributors. But that is a research frontier, not a verdict on any single over-the-counter medicine.

When an American president recasts preliminary findings as a simplistic story of cause and effect, public trust inevitably erodes. It is deeply worrying that the forces of irrationality are now in positions of such influence from which to prosecute their war on science.

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Opinion

The Irish Times view on the Starmer question: Labour should be careful

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The pressure is mounting on Keir Starmer ahead of the UK Labour party conference starting this weekend. Fifteen months after the party’s landslide general election victory, there are question marks over his continued premiership. Starmer’s vulnerability is partly self-inflicted but it also underlines the challenges he faces.

The UK has registered anaemic growth levels for well over a decade, on the back of a long line of policy mistakes. Prior to the 2024 election, Labour pledged no income tax rises, which has meant a raft of new business taxes, further depressing growth. It also promised 1.5 million new homes by 2029, but construction activity has fallen to its lowest level since the Covid pandemic.

Starmer has had an unfortunate mix of bad luck (losing deputy prime minister Angela Rayner) and bad judgment (the attempt to cut the winter fuel allowance). Labour languishes at 20 per cent in opinion polls while Nigel Farage’s Reform is riding a wave of anti-migrant and anti-establishment sentiment.

To the left, Labour is under threat from the Liberal Democrats and the Greens. It remains to be seen what impact former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s new party will have.

Last month, Starmer reshuffled his cabinet in an effort to inject a new sense of purpose. So far there is no tangible signs this is paying dividends.

Just days before the conference starts, Andy Burnham, the popular mayor of Manchester, has launched a scathing attack on Starmer, calling his style of leadership divisive and saying he lacks a credible plan.

The comments are widely seen as an opening salvo in a leadership challenge.

There is no doubt Starmer has made mistakes. But the reality is that Brexit inflicted deep economic wound there are no easy solutions.

The Conservatives elected five different prime ministers in nine years in the mistaken belief that changing personalities would change outcomes. That led to instability and stasis. Labour would do well to remember such a recent lesson.

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Opinion

Alison Healy: Renewed push to honour Finnish sailor who fought in the Easter Rising

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It may be 109 years since the Easter Rising, but the State would like to award one more 1916 medal. It’s for a man from Finland who apparently had no connection with Irish republicans until he turned up at the GPO in April 1916.

At least four different versions of his name turned up in various accounts of the Rising and his nationality veered from Russian to Polish to Norwegian, depending on who was interviewed. But thanks to research by Dr Andrew Newby, historian at the University of Galway, we now know that his name was Antti Juho Mäkipaltio.

He was a sailor who found himself in Dublin with his Swedish colleague that fateful spring. The Swedish man’s name has been lost in the mists of time, but perhaps that will also be revealed one day.

Captain Liam Tannam of the Irish Volunteers gave an account of the Nordic men’s arrival in his witness statement held by the Bureau of Military History. On Easter Monday afternoon in the GPO, he was called to the window and saw “two obviously foreign looking men”. The Swede said they wanted to help the Irish rebels and explained that Mäkipaltio had no English.

The bemused Tannam asked why a Finn and a Swede would want to fight the British in Ireland. “Finland, a small country, Russia eat her up… Sweden, another small country, Russia eat her up too. Russia with the British, therefore, we against,” his statement recalled.

When asked about their experience with weapons, the Swede said he had used a rifle before but Mäkipaltio only had experience shooting fowl. He had not exaggerated about his friend’s lack of skills. Mäkipaltio was handed a shotgun and at one point, he let his gun hit the floor. It discharged and released a shower of plaster on the men’s heads.

Irish Volunteer Charles Donnelly’s statement said that when James Connolly heard about it, he declared: “The man who fires a shot like that will himself be shot.”

To avoid any more casualties, Joseph Plunkett asked them to fill fruit tins with explosives. When the surrender came, both men were captured but the Swedish man was quickly released.

Mäkipaltio, on the other hand, found himself in Kilmainham Gaol. Although he had no English, Tannam claimed he was saying the rosary in Irish before he left. He was sent to Knutsford Prison in Cheshire with his fellow rebels on May 2nd before being finally freed several weeks later.

Dr Newby’s research found that although Finnish media reported on various 1916 anniversaries, there was no mention of Mäkipaltio until recently. When the Finnish president Tarja Halonen visited Ireland in 2007, she referred to claims that a Finn had taken part in the Rising but said she didn’t know if it was a myth.

When Dr Newby began working on his book Éire na Rúise (The Ireland of Russia), about Finland and Ireland, he knew he had to establish the identity of the Finnish rebel. Jimmy Wren’s book, The GPO Garrison Easter Week 1916, was most useful as it said he had gone to the US after the Rising. Dr Newby discovered a newspaper report of a talk given by Mäkipaltio in New York in 1917.

He talked about the hunger in prison and of seeing rebels being beaten in the prison yard. He told the audience he had walked to Northern Ireland after being returned to Dublin. He sailed to the US from there, arriving in Philadelphia on June 24th, 1916.

His experience in the GPO must have stood him in good stead as he became a sergeant in the US army. After the first World War, he lived in Ohio and Illinois before settling in Michigan and working as a tool and die maker. He died in 1951.

The GPO is not ‘sacred ground’. It’s so much more than thatOpens in new window ]

Dr Newby tracked down Mäkipaltio’s step granddaughter who said his descendants knew about the Irish adventure. Family lore suggested that rather than deliberately travelling to take up arms against British forces, the duo had missed their boat’s departure from Dublin and took the opportunity for adventure.

When the Rising centenary was commemorated in 2016, Dr Newby said there was a suggestion that Mäkipaltio would be posthumously awarded a 1916 medal. I asked the Department of Defence if that had ever happened and a spokesman confirmed that a decision had been made to award the medal.

However, officials had been unable to reach his relatives. “The Department would be happy to hear from the family and ensure that the 1916 medal can be presented to his next-of-kin,” he said.

Efforts are now being made by Dr Newby to renew his contact with the family. Perhaps, by the time the 110th anniversary rolls around, Antti Juho Mäkipaltio will finally be recognised for his small role in the Easter Rising.

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