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Budget 2026 plans are coming at wrong time in economic cycle, ESRI warns

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The Government has been warned to scale back spending or risk overheating the economy.

In its latest quarterly bulletin, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) said the Government’s fiscal stance, including the proposed €9.4 billion budget for next year, was adding to demand pressures at the wrong time in the economic cycle.

This could be damaging in the long term “if capacity constraints or cost inflation” prevent the full delivery of the National Development Plan (NDP), it said.

“Ideally the Government should be running a surplus when you adjust for the windfall taxes,” the ESRI’s Alan Barrett said.

[ Housing targets unlikely to be met as commencements slow, ESRI warns ]

“In order to do that you would be looking at scaling back expenditure or raising taxes something of the order of €8-€10 billion, rather dramatic numbers,” he said.

“The adjustment overnight would have almost an austerity look and feel about it and I don’t think that’s entirely appropriate fiscal policy either,” he said.

“What’s required is a moderation in growth [in spending] over time and a targeting of a [underlying] budget surplus … but to kind of glide to it over the next three, four or five budgets,” he said.

Mr Barrett said the Government needed to have a “credible” medium-term fiscal strategy.

The ESRI’s warning comes on the back of a similar one last week from the Central Bank, which claimed the additional expenditure being proposed in Budget 2026 was “too large” and “unnecessary”.

[ Budget 2026 plans will limit response to future economic shocks, committee hears ]

In its latest assessment, the ESRI predicted the economy here would grow by 8 per cent this year in gross domestic product (GDP) terms against a previous projection of 4.6 per cent.

The upgrade for 2025 reflected the “large increase in exports” at the start of the year as firms, particularly in the pharma sector, stockpiled produce in the United States ahead of expected tariffs.

GDP growth is expected to fall back to 2 per cent next year, a downgrade on the previous estimate, as exports moderate in the face of tighter trade conditions.

The ESRI said the European Union-US trade deal, which applies a 15 per cent tariff on most EU exports to the US, had “removed a considerable amount of uncertainty from the economic landscape”.

“While this agreement reduces uncertainty in the short term, the new situation of a 15 per cent tariff represents a deterioration in our trading environment, and will likely be impactful for many firms and sectors,” it said.

In its report, the ESRI noted that while headline inflation had moderated considerably and would contribute to real wage growth, grocery price inflation remained elevated – at 5 per cent – presenting a cost-of-living challenge for many households.

It also questioned the Government’s opposition to the proposed Mercosur trade deal.

The institute said the EU’s trade deal with South America was predicted to increase GDP by 0.13 per cent out to 2035 while having only a minimal impact on beef production.

“At a time when economic policy should be directed towards protecting and enhancing free trade, it seems counterproductive to be opposing free-trade agreements,” it said.

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Walmart teams up with Spain’s La Liga, furthering the retailer’s investment in soccer

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25 September 2025

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  • Walmart is partnering with the Spanish soccer league La Liga and will be the first-ever presenting partner of “El Clásico,” a marquee rivalry match between powerhouse teams FC Barcelona and Real Madrid CF.
  • The partnership aims to grow the American soccer fanbase through large-scale viewing events, concerts, exclusive merchandise and in-store activations.
  • Walmart is doubling down on its investment in soccer ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup across the U.S., Mexico and Canada.
Real Madrid’s Spanish defender #20 Francisco Garcia fights for the ball with Barcelona’s Spanish forward #19 Lamine Yamal during the Spanish league football match between FC Barcelona and Real Madrid CF at Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys in Barcelona, on May 11, 2025.
Lluis Gene | Afp | Getty Images

Walmart is bringing its brand to the biggest match in soccer.

The nation’s largest retailer plans to announce Thursday a partnership with Spanish soccer league La Liga as it looks to expand its foothold in soccer and capitalize on its growing fandom in the U.S.

Under the partnership, Walmart will become the first presenting partner of La Liga’s “El Clásico,” a rivalry matchup between its two powerhouse teams: FC Barcelona and Real Madrid CF.

“Teaming up with La Liga and El Clásico enables Walmart to fuel the energy create unforgettable experiences and give fans more ways to celebrate the game that they love,” Walmart Chief Marketing Officer William White told CNBC in an interview. “Ultimately, Walmart is looking to make it easier for fans to engage and participate in the game.”

The partnership will include a new logo featuring Walmart as the presenting partner for the rivalry matchup, which will be used across the U.S. and Canada and debut this season.

The rivalry game dates back to 1929 and has routinely attracted 650 million viewers across more than 180 countries, according to Walmart and La Liga.

The first El Clásico, which translates to “the classic” in Spanish, of the 2025-26 season is scheduled for Oct. 26 in Madrid, with the second match on May 10 in Barcelona.

Walmart and La Liga will launch the partnership ahead of the first match-up with a full weekend of fan events in Houston starting Oct. 24. The partnership will include large-scale viewing parties, concerts, meet-and-greets with former stars, co-branded merchandise and retail promotions.

“The U.S. is the top market for the league [La Liga] in terms of audience and business outside of Spain,” said Boris Gartner, partner and president at Relevant Sports, which together with La Liga formed the 50-50 venture La Liga North America to represent the Spanish league in the U.S., Canada, Mexico and Central America.

La Liga North America manages the league’s media rights and commercial agreements.

“This is not just about slapping two logos side by side. This is a true partnership with what we’re building,” Gartner said.

Spanish powerhouse clubs Real Madrid and Barcelona have been home to some of the biggest global names in soccer — including superstar Lionel Messi, who played for Barcelona until 2021 and now plays for Major League Soccer’s Inter Miami, and more recently the young French star Kylian Mbappe, who joined Real Madrid.

In the U.S., Disney’s ESPN airs La Liga games on its streaming platforms and TV networks. The company said in August the 2024-2025 season was its most successful for the league on ESPN platforms yet, with 5.4 billion minutes viewed across its networks and streaming services.

The Spanish league’s multi-year deal with Walmart is meant to build on this growing audience for La Liga soccer in the U.S., as well as the growing soccer fanbase ahead of the 2026 World Cup, which will take place across the U.S., Mexico and Canada.

“We came in knowing that the World Cup was happening in 2026 and that the sport was growing significantly in in the U.S., and that we needed to be part of that growth not just from a business perspective for the league in the large media market in the world, but also with the opportunity to help fuel the growth of the sport,” Gartner said.

In July, Walmart struck a multi-year deal with MLS to become an official sponsor and partner of the league. As of early May, MLS sponsorship revenue was up double-digits compared with 2024, CNBC reported earlier this year. Likewise, the U.S. soccer fanbase has surged, particularly since Messi joined the MLS ranks in 2023.

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H&M shuts more stores globally as cost-cutting boosts profits

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41 minutes ago

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25 September 2025

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H&M has revealed stronger-than-expected profits amid efforts to cut costs, which have seen the fashion retailer push ahead with further store closures.

The Swedish clothing giant said on Wednesday that it has closed 135 stores over the past nine months and expects to shut more sites in the current quarter.

It said most of the closures took place in Asia, Oceania and Africa, while 21 took place in Western Europe.

The closure plans also particularly affected its H&M and Monki branded stores.

The store overhaul is part of efforts by the retail firm to improve its profitability by reducing its costs.

H&M reported operating profits of 4.91 billion Swedish krona (£390 million) for the quarter to the end of August, rising from 3.51 billion krona (€316.5 million) a year earlier.

It was significantly above analyst predictions and represented an increase after declines in the two previous quarters.

Boss Daniel Erver said the business is “taking further steps in the right direction” but highlighted that customers are still “cautious” in the face of wider economic uncertainty.

The retailer saw sales grow by 2% in the latest quarter to 57 billion krona (£4.51 billion) despite the reduction in store numbers.

Bosses added that it has seen a positive reaction to its autumn clothing lines this quarter.

Mr Erver said: “Through a stronger customer offering, an improved gross margin and good cost control, we have strengthened operating profit compared with the same quarter last year.

“The increase in profit shows that we are on the right track as a result of the progress we have made in our plan.

“In an environment of ongoing uncertainty with cautious consumers, all of us within the H&M group are consistently focusing on our customer offering – always giving the best value for money.

“Our strong culture, together with good cost control and flexibility, allows us to continue building a stable foundation for long term, profitable and sustainable growth in an increasingly complex environment, while taking additional important steps towards our ambitious sustainability goals.”

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Will you watch House of Guinness?

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47 minutes ago

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25 September 2025

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NETFLIX’S LATEST PERIOD drama, House of Guinness, premieres on the streaming platform today.

The eight-part series, created and written by Peaky Blinders creator Steven Knight, explores the aftermath of the death of Guinness family patriarch Benjamin Guinness in the 19th century.

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The cast includes a blend Irish and English actors – including Fionn O’Shea (Normal People), Jack Gleeson (Game of Thrones) and James Norton (Happy Valley).

Norton, who plays Sean Rafferty, said that he “worked hard” on getting his Dublin accent right for the role.

So, today we’re asking: Will you watch House of Guinness?

Poll Results:

Yes – adding it to my watchlist (296)

Not sure – I might give it a go (100)

No – not for me (74)

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