Sales of newly built homes rose a much larger-than-expected 20.5% in August compared with July to the highest level since January 2022, according to the U.S. Census. It is also the largest one-month gain since August 2022. Sales were 15.4% higher than August 2024.

This count is based on people out shopping in August and signing deals, when the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage was higher than it is today. That rate started August at 6.63%, according to Mortgage News Daily, and didn’t really move much during the month.

The sharp decline in rates began in September, when it fell to a three-year low of 6.13% the day before the Federal Reserve cut its lending rate, and then moved higher to where it is now at 6.37%.

Given that rates hadn’t fallen yet, it’s curious that August sales jumped so high. Part of the answer may be in the survey itself.

“We were expecting a gain but not that large,” said Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders. “Always important to remember the margin of error for new home sales is large. We’ll need to wait for revisions next month and the September data point to see if this is smoothed out.”

Homebuilder analyst Ivy Zelman of Zelman & Associates said the number was “directionally right, but the magnitude was way too high.” She also noted that the Census report has a very small sample size and the big public builders, who together have 60% market share, don’t participate.

Zelman conducts her own survey, which has a higher sample size spanning 15% of homebuilders, and it showed a sales increase of 6% year over year, she said.

While builders have talked a lot about cutting prices and incentives, the median price of a new home sold in August was $413,500, in increase of 1.9% year over year. In a separate survey on builder sentiment from the National Association of Home Builders, 39% of builders reported cutting prices in September, up from 37% in August and the highest percentage in the post-Covid period.

New home sales were strongest in the Northeast, where overall new construction is low, so swings can be large. It was also strong in the South, where homebuilding is busiest. Sales, while higher, were weakest in the West, where prices are highest.

“While a volatile figure each month and always best to smooth out, I have to believe that the elevated level of home builder incentives was the main catalyst for the large upside surprise to new home sales,” wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of One Point BFG Wealth Partner.  “And we’ll, of course, see the impact of lower mortgage rates when the September figure comes out, but keep in mind, if mortgage rates continue down … builders will then reduce the pace at which they are implementing incentives and thus possibly offsetting the benefit of lower mortgage rates for new homes.”

Strong sales took inventory down to a 7.4-month supply in August from a 9-month supply in July, a nearly 18% drop. Single-family housing starts and permits slowed in August both from July and from August of last year. This would seem to indicate that builders expected slower sales.

Disney on Tuesday unveiled price increases for its streaming subscription packages beginning Oct. 21.

The stand-alone Disney+ ad-supported plan will see a $2 increase to $11.99 per month, while the premium no-ads plan will jump $3 to $18.99 per month or get a $30 annual hike to $189.99 per year.

The Disney+ and Hulu ad-supported package will increase by $2 per month, and both of the bundles with Disney+, Hulu and ESPN will see a $3 monthly increase. The packages with Disney+, Hulu and HBO Max will also both increase by $3 per month.

The NFL+ plans will remain at the same pricing.

The company previously alluded to the price increases on its third-quarter earnings call, adding that it expects a modest increase in Disney+ subscribers in its fourth fiscal quarter. Disney last raised prices for its packages in October 2024, with most plans increasing by $1 to $2.

The price hikes come as the entertainment company has faced intense scrutiny for its handling of “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” after Disney subsidiary ABC pulled the show off air last week over the host’s controversial comments about the alleged killer of conservative activist Charlie Kirk.

The company announced nearly a week later that the show would return to air on Tuesday, after viewers and late-show hosts criticized Disney for its actions.

In the interim, some fans took to social media to announce they were canceling their Disney+ subscriptions in solidarity with Kimmel.

Disney did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment on the price changes.

DETROIT — Ford Motor is trying to boost sales of its crucial F-150 pickup truck before the end of the third quarter by offering special financing to consumers with less-than-perfect credit ratings.

The move includes offering consumers with subprime credit — those with a FICO score below 620 — lower interest rates that are typically offered to those with quality scores, the automaker’s Ford Credit financial arm confirmed Wednesday.

Such promotions aren’t unprecedented and are an effort to make vehicles more affordable for more buyers and decrease inventory levels. But borrowers with lower credit scores are considered more likely to default or miss payments, especially during an economic downturn.

In addition to pickup trucks being crucial vehicles for the balance sheets of Detroit automakers such as Ford, their sales are closely watched as a sign of demand for skilled labor and small businesses.

A Ford Credit spokeswoman said the promotional rates do not factor into the organization’s actual “credit decisions” for consumers. She added that the specific rate will vary based on the terms of the agreement.

The Wall Street Journal, which first reported the program, said Ford uses a proprietary scoring model to assess a borrower’s creditworthiness that goes beyond a FICO credit score.

“We only finance customers we believe are creditworthy and have the capacity to pay. We have done these types of national programs in the past, extending a promotional rate to customers who meet our credit criteria,” Ford Credit said in an emailed statement to CNBC.

The average new auto loan rate was about 9% as of the most recent data from July, according to Cox Automotive’s Dealertrack. That included rates of around 18% to 20% for subprime or “deep-subprime” consumers.

Automakers such as Ford have historically attempted to limit financing to subprime buyers through their own financial lending arms, which have significantly increased in importance in recent years.

Ford Credit reports only 3% to 4% of its credit arm’s financing since 2024 have been to “higher risk” consumers. The average FICO score for Ford Credit’s customers was 748 through the first half of the year, down from 757, according to a recent public filing.  

Sales of Ford F-Series trucks, which include the F-150, were up 12.7% for the year entering September, however, were down 3.4% for the month in August, compared with a year earlier. Pricing for the 2025 F-150 ranges from around $39,000 to more than $100,000 depending on the model and options.

Affordability in the automotive industry has been a concern for many years, as interest rates have remained high and the average vehicle purchase price has increased to around $50,000, according to Cox.

Ford’s promotion comes as the Federal Reserve approved a quarter-point rate cut last week, with the central bank signaling the possibility for two more interest rate reductions in 2025.

Ford isn’t the only automaker offering deals on its pickup trucks. Stellantis‘ Ram Trucks brand is currently offering 0% financing for “well-qualified buyers” on select vehicles in its lineup, according to its website.

General Motors’ Chevrolet and GMC brands also are offering low-interest rate financing, as little as 0%, for well-qualified buyers through the end of this month when financed with its financial arm, according to their sites.