Seasonal hiring in the retail industry is poised to fall to its lowest level since the 2009 recession, an early warning sign that the holiday shopping season could be softer than expected, job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said in a Wednesday report.
Challenger is projecting retailers may add under 500,000 positions in the final three months of 2025, marking the smallest seasonal gain in 16 years and an 8% decline from the year-ago period.
“Seasonal employers are facing a confluence of factors this year: tariffs loom, inflationary pressures linger, and many companies continue to rely on automation and permanent staff instead of large waves of seasonal hires,” said Andy Challenger, a senior vice president and workplace expert at Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
“While we could see a late hiring push if holiday sales surprise to the upside, the cautious pace of announcements so far suggests that companies are not betting on a big seasonal surge. This year may be more about doing more with less.”
Challenger’s projections come as fewer companies make seasonal hiring announcements.
This time last year, retailers like Target, Macy’s, Burlington Stores, Aldi and 1-800-Flowers had already announced the number of seasonal workers they planned to hire. But so far this season, none of those companies have disclosed the number of seasonal workers they plan to hire yet.
Last year, Target said it would hire 100,000 seasonal workers. This year, it said it’s offering additional hours to its current employees and tapping into its “On-Demand team” – a group of about 43,000 store employees who pick up shifts based on their schedules.
While Target said it also hires seasonal team members across its stores and supply chain facilities, it didn’t say how many it was planning to hire.
Meanwhile, Macy’s, Burlington Stores, Aldi and 1-800-Flowers have not released any information about their holiday hiring plans.
While some companies like Amazon and UPS release hiring figures a bit later in the season, Spirit Halloween and Bath & Body Works are among the few to have published their seasonal hiring plans so far.
Spirit said it’s planning to hire 50,000 people, the same number as last year, according to Challenger. Bath & Body Works is planning to hire 32,000 workers, down slightly from 32,700 last year, Challenger said.
The muted response from the retail industry so far reflects the overall job market, which has slowed in recent months, contributing to the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut its key interest rate last week.
In August, nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000, far below the 75,000 expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones, and a marked slowdown from July.
In the months before the crucial holiday shopping season, many consumer companies that rely on seasonal workers release the number of employees they plan to hire, which is an indicator of how strong the season is expected to be. Challenger’s report is one of many indicators of economic weakness consumers have clocked in recent months amid fears that President Donald Trump‘s trade war could damage the economy.
Consumers have been under pressure for several years from persistent inflation and stubbornly high interest rates, but now they’re also contending with even higher prices on some goods from tariffs and record high credit card debt. Many companies are offsetting the costs of higher tariffs by raising prices, which could have a chilling effect on consumer demand in the months ahead.
In early September, consulting firm PwC published a report that found shoppers are planning to spend 5% less on holiday gifts, travel and entertainment this year – the first notable drop since 2020. AlixPartners, another consulting firm, said it’s forecasting an “underwhelming” 3% to 5% growth rate in holiday retail sales this year.
