Seasonal hiring in the retail industry is poised to fall to its lowest level since the 2009 recession, an early warning sign that the holiday shopping season could be softer than expected, job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said in a Wednesday report. 

Challenger is projecting retailers may add under 500,000 positions in the final three months of 2025, marking the smallest seasonal gain in 16 years and an 8% decline from the year-ago period. 

“Seasonal employers are facing a confluence of factors this year: tariffs loom, inflationary pressures linger, and many companies continue to rely on automation and permanent staff instead of large waves of seasonal hires,” said Andy Challenger, a senior vice president and workplace expert at Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

“While we could see a late hiring push if holiday sales surprise to the upside, the cautious pace of announcements so far suggests that companies are not betting on a big seasonal surge. This year may be more about doing more with less.” 

Challenger’s projections come as fewer companies make seasonal hiring announcements. 

This time last year, retailers like Target, Macy’s, Burlington Stores, Aldi and 1-800-Flowers had already announced the number of seasonal workers they planned to hire. But so far this season, none of those companies have disclosed the number of seasonal workers they plan to hire yet.

Last year, Target said it would hire 100,000 seasonal workers. This year, it said it’s offering additional hours to its current employees and tapping into its “On-Demand team” – a group of about 43,000 store employees who pick up shifts based on their schedules. 

While Target said it also hires seasonal team members across its stores and supply chain facilities, it didn’t say how many it was planning to hire. 

Meanwhile, Macy’s, Burlington Stores, Aldi and 1-800-Flowers have not released any information about their holiday hiring plans. 

While some companies like Amazon and UPS release hiring figures a bit later in the season, Spirit Halloween and Bath & Body Works are among the few to have published their seasonal hiring plans so far. 

Spirit said it’s planning to hire 50,000 people, the same number as last year, according to Challenger. Bath & Body Works is planning to hire 32,000 workers, down slightly from 32,700 last year, Challenger said.

The muted response from the retail industry so far reflects the overall job market, which has slowed in recent months, contributing to the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut its key interest rate last week. 

In August, nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000, far below the 75,000 expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones, and a marked slowdown from July.  

In the months before the crucial holiday shopping season, many consumer companies that rely on seasonal workers release the number of employees they plan to hire, which is an indicator of how strong the season is expected to be. Challenger’s report is one of many indicators of economic weakness consumers have clocked in recent months amid fears that President Donald Trump‘s trade war could damage the economy.

Consumers have been under pressure for several years from persistent inflation and stubbornly high interest rates, but now they’re also contending with even higher prices on some goods from tariffs and record high credit card debt. Many companies are offsetting the costs of higher tariffs by raising prices, which could have a chilling effect on consumer demand in the months ahead.

In early September, consulting firm PwC published a report that found shoppers are planning to spend 5% less on holiday gifts, travel and entertainment this year – the first notable drop since 2020. AlixPartners, another consulting firm, said it’s forecasting an “underwhelming” 3% to 5% growth rate in holiday retail sales this year.

“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” returned to air with an emotional monologue Tuesday night, roughly one week after the late-night show was suspended by Disney’s ABC broadcast network.

The program was initially pulled “indefinitely” following comments by host Kimmel during a show monologue that criticized members of President Donald Trump’s MAGA movement for their reaction to conservative activist Charlie Kirk‘s killing.

“It was never my intention to make light of the murder of a young man,” Kimmel said Tuesday, getting choked up. “I don’t think there’s anything funny about it.”

Kimmel went on: “Nor was it my intention to blame any specific group for the actions of what was obviously a deeply disturbed individual. That was really the opposite of the point I was trying to make. But I understand that to some that felt either ill-timed or unclear, or maybe both. And for those who think I did point a finger, I get why you’re upset. If the situation was reversed, it’s a good chance I’d have felt the same way.”

The comedian’s pretaped monologue marked the first time he had publicly addressed the matter.

“I’m happy to be here tonight,” Kimmel said to massive applause from the audience. “It’s been overwhelming. I’ve heard from a lot of people over the last six days. I’ve heard from all the people in the world over the last six days. Everyone I have ever met has reached out 10 or 11 times.”

Earlier Tuesday, Kimmel’s show posted a photo to Instagram with the caption, “We are back full of love.” Kimmel’s personal account posted a photo of the host with the late screenwriter and producer Norman Lear, who in 1981 founded People For The American Way, an organization dedicated to First Amendment rights.

Kimmel touched on free speech protections Tuesday during his remarks.

“This show is not important. What is important is that we get to live in a country that allows us to have a show like this,” he said. “I had the opportunity to meet and spend time with comedians and talk show hosts from countries like Russia, countries in the Middle East, who told me they would get thrown in prison for making fun of those in power. … They know how lucky we are here. Our freedom to speak is what they admire most about this country.”

Audience members leaving the taping described the monologue as “emotional” and described a warm reception from fans.

“It was just standing ovation after standing ovation,” said Veronica Ament of Fresno, California, who secured her tickets for the taping weeks ago. “My voice is almost gone.”

Disney said in a statement Monday it made the decision to suspend production of “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” following comments that were “ill-timed and thus insensitive.”

Those comments came during Kimmel’s monologue last Monday, in reference to Tyler Robinson, who is charged with fatally shooting Kirk on Sept. 10. Kimmel said then the “MAGA gang” was “desperately trying to characterize this kid who murdered Charlie Kirk as anything other than one of them and doing everything they can to score political points from it.”

“In between the finger-pointing there was grieving. On Friday the White House flew the flags at half-staff, which got some criticism, but on a human level you can see how hard the president is taking this,” he continued, teeing up a clip of Trump on the White House lawn in which the president fields a question on Kirk but swiftly pivots to talking about construction.

Kimmel’s suspension came amid statements from Federal Communications Commission Chair Brendan Carr that suggested ABC and its affiliate stations could be at risk of losing broadcast licenses over the comments.

Local station owners Nexstar Media Group and Sinclair both said they would preempt the show’s return on Tuesday, meaning many markets across the country were not able to watch the program through local channels. Together, the two companies own roughly 70 ABC affiliate stations.

“We are still on the air in most of the country, except, ironically, from Washington, D.C., where we have been preempted,” Kimmel said after a commercial break. “After almost 23 years on the air, we’re suddenly not being broadcast in 20% of the country, which is not a situation we relish.”

Kimmel was then joined via video by famed actor Robert De Niro, who was portraying an aggressive FCC chair.

Kimmel, ABC and Disney are the latest targets of Trump and his administration’s scrutiny of media companies, which has intensified during his second term marked by high-profile defamation lawsuits, the defunding of public broadcasters and regulatory interference from the FCC.

Trump posted to his Truth Social platform late Tuesday railing against Kimmel and saying his administration would “test ABC out on this.”

“Let’s see how we do,” Trump said. “Last time I went after them, they gave me $16 Million Dollars. This one sounds even more lucrative.”

In December, ABC agreed to pay $16 million — $15 million toward Trump’s presidential library and $1 million in legal fees — to settle a defamation lawsuit brought by Trump alleging anchor George Stephanopoulos made an inaccurate on-air assertion that the then-president-elect had been found civilly liable for raping writer E. Jean Carroll. Trump had been found liable for sexually assaulting and defaming Carroll. Trump denies Carroll’s claims that he attacked her.

Kimmel on Tuesday rallied his audience to continue to speak out against attacks on journalists by the Trump administration.

“It’s so important to have a free press, and it is nuts that we aren’t paying more attention to it,” he said.

Ahead of the Tuesday’s show taping, protesters and supporters appeared outside the El Capitan Entertainment Centre in Hollywood.

“He should be off the air for another full week if not a full month to think about what he said,” Perry Caravello, a YouTuber who was protesting Kimmel’s return to air, told CNBC outside the studio Tuesday before the taping.

Meanwhile, Gregg Donovan, who donned a black top hat and red blazer, carried a laminated sign welcoming Kimmel back.

“This is America,” he said. “I don’t think free speech will ever really be threatened.” 

Kimmel’s show is filmed at the El Capitan Entertainment Centre on Hollywood Boulevard, across from the iconic TCL Chinese Theater. The Hollywood Walk of Fame takes up the sidewalk outside Kimmel’s venue, with names as diverse as Roy Disney, Eva Longoria, Kelly Ripa, Paul Rudd and Chris Pratt decorating the pavement.

— CNBC’s Lillian Rizzo and Sara Salinas contributed to this report.